Tuesday, May 24, 2011

Is Batting Average Really As Important As It's Made Out to Be?

At the beginning of every Major League Baseball game a series of stats flash across the screen; who will be playing where on the field, who the pitchers are and the line-up. Next to each players name in the line-up is a little three digit number that is supposed to be the most important number to any baseball player, his batting average. Does a .248 batting average really mean your shortstop is struggling at the plate, or is there a better set of stats you could look at to determine the future of your team?

The frequency that MLB telecasts and radio broadcasts rattle off a players batting average assigns that number more credit than it is actually due, a players batting average does not accurately depict how well he is performing. The best number that a person could look at is a players On-Base Percentage.

A players on-base percentage, OBP, accounts for every at bat that he takes, including every time that he draws a base-on-balls or reaches on a hit-by-pitch.Whereas in the calculations for a players batting average anything that is not a hit or an out is discarded and does not factor into the rating of the player.

For example, as of Tuesday, May 25, 2011, Detroit Tigers shortstop Jhonny Peralta had a .296 batting average, leading one to believe that he is not having the easiest of time at the plate. But Peralta's OBP tells a different story, at .359 Peralta is on base more than any other Tiger with the exception of Miguel Cabrera.

Calculating a player's OBP is quite easy, but somewhat time consuming. The name "on-base percentage" confuses people, as it is not out of 100, but out of 1,000. A perfect OBP is 1.000, or a thousand. To find a player's OBP just;
  1. Add up all of the player's plate appearances
  2. Subtract the number of sacrifice bunts the player has made, this will give you the total at bats
  3. Add up all the times the player reached base; either a hit, base on balls, hit-by-pitch. This does not include errors by fielders or fielders-choice plays.
  4. Divide the times the player reached base safely by the total
  5. This way of thinking and scoring baseball is known as sabermetrics, or SABR 
  6. Round to the third decimal point; .52001 is .520
By knowing the player's OBP one can more accurately predict the probability of the player reaching base safely than trying to glean that information from a batting average.

A perfect OBP does not mean that a team would score infinite runs as one might assume, but a team could have a perfect OBP while scoring only one run. The leadoff batter could hit a home run, then the next three batters could fly out to the outfielders; the team will have gained four runs for the inning. The team will come away from the inning with a perfect OBP but only one run.

The weight that is placed upon RBI's is also one that is undeserved; the act of getting an RBI requires a significant amount of luck. For example, a batter who is routinely batted third should have many more RBI's than a player who bats leadoff. Is that an indication of the former player's superiority? No, it is simply that the batter hitting third should be put in situations where there are runners on base; if there are no runners the batter cannot get an RBI. This puts a bit of luck whether or not a player will be put into an RBI situation, making the RBI less valuable as a statistic.

Instead one should focus more on the slugging percentage of a player, this stat shows you the power that a player has. It takes into account the total bases that a player has gotten on every hit throughout the season. For example a single counts a one base, but a homer counts as four. Slugging percentage is calculated per 4,000 meaning that a perfect slugging percentage would be 4.000.

To figure out a player's slugging percentage one must;
  1. Add up all official at bats. Do not include at bats that resulted in a base on balls, sacrifice or hit by pitch.
  2. Add up total bases. One for a single, two for a double, etc.
  3. Divide total bases by total at bats.
  4. Round to the third decimal point. .5671 is .567
  To figure out if your shortstop is worth keeping or bound for the waiver wire, look at his OBP and slugging percentages instead of his batting average and RBI's. By doing this, you will get a more complete picture of your shortstop and will better be able to assess his abilities for your team.

Sunday, May 15, 2011

How Are They Doing It? The Rays Are in First Place

The off season was not friendly to the Tampa Bay Rays, other teams in the league raided Tampa Bay's roster, taking away almost half of their players via trades and free agency. Boston signed star outfielder Carlos Crawford away from the Rays; Detroit signed away Joaquin Benoit and the Yankees took Rafael Soriano. To combat the flood of players exiting Tampa Bay the Rays signed free agents Johnny Damon and Manny Ramirez. But less than one month into the season, Ramirez announced his immediate retirement, leaving the Rays once again in roster trouble.

Expectations for the Rays were low to begin the season, analysts harped on the exodus of players from their ranks in the off season placing them to finish in the middle of the pack in the American League East. The Rays lived up to expectations to begin the season, losing their first six games of the year. After dropping to last place in the division, things changed, since the first week of the year the Rays have had the best record in all of baseball.

Behind the arms of their two best starters David Price and James Shields the Rays have been able to rely on pitching ability to overcome the offensive struggles that accompany a shifting roster. With the retirement of Ramirez, Evan Longoria lost his protection in the lineup, leading him to push and ultimately land on the 15-day disabled list. With arguably their best player on the DL the Rays once again had to find a way to win with the cards they had been dealt.

As is the case on teams with uncertain lineups several young players, as well as some previously silent veterans, have stepped into the spotlight for the Rays to help propel them to first place in the division. Outfielder Sam Fuld has taken to his new place on the team, he was brought in to help replace some of the talent that was lost, mainly Crawford, and he has performed impressively.

At first Fuld made his mark with his bat, racking up 13-RBI and a .293 on-base-percentage before the Rays realized what his real calling card was; his glove. To date, Fuld's defensive abilities have saved 9 runs from scoring. Crawford averaged 17 saved runs per season, with the start that Fuld has had he is on pace to well surpass that number.

He was a toss-in piece in the Matt Garza to Chicago trade in the off season, and he has already endeared himself to Rays fans, or at least the ones that show up. As his offensive numbers continue to dip he will have to lean heavily on his defensive skills, and from what he's shown they are more than able to keep him in the majors.

Second baseman Ben Zobrist has stepped up his game this season, putting up great offensive numbers including a 10-RBI day, between both games of a double-header. While racking up eight home runs and 27 RBI's, Zobrist has recorded a .288 batting average on the year.  

With a combination of a strong top of the rotation and contributions from young players like Fuld and veterans like Damon and Ben Zobrist, the Rays are beating all odds and sitting atop the American League East. With one of the smallest payrolls in the majors the Rays are beating out the $300 million New York Yankees for the division title.