Tuesday, June 28, 2011

Ramon Santiago Deserves to Play Second Everyday

After the trade of Scott Sizemore to Oakland, Ryan Raburn became the Detroit Tigers everyday second baseman, overlooking the man they should have tabbed who has been with the team since 2002. Ramon Santiago has been with the Tigers through the rough times as well as the good and has never begrudged his job of being the utility man and pinch hitter. But, it's his time now.

Raburn is floundering defensively at second and he is struggling to stay above the Mendoza Line at the plate, both qualities that you do not want in an everyday player. Santiago is frequently called upon to sub Raburn in the field when it gets late in the game, which shows that Manager Jim Leyland believes that he is the better defensive player.

Offensively, Santiago isn't hitting much better than Raburn, .209 to Raburn's .200. But Raburn has 110 more at-bat's than Santiago and many of Santiago's plate appearances have been coming in cold off the bench as a pinch hitter.

Defensively Santiago is the better player, Raburn costs the Tigers 0.3 runs a season with his defensive misques (www.baseball-reference.com) whereas Santiago actually contributes 0.3 runs defensively a season. The values are miniscule but Santiago has proved that he can handle the second base position.

Should Leyland eventually regularly start Santiago at second as opposed to Raburn his position in the batting order is important. The Tigers are in need of a consistent number two hitter and Santiago's stats show that he could fill that role admirably. When he has started a game this season batting ninth he is hitting only .149 but when Leyland moves him up to second in the order, his stats balloon to .308.

Ultimately the Tigers may decide to trade for a second baseman to replace Raburn, but if they want to keep the job in-house, then they have the perfect candidate in Santiago.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Introducing Your Second Baseman, Ryan Raburn! Seriously?

Two years ago the Detroit Tigers allowed their All Star second baseman Placido Polanco to walk away from the team without even offering him a contract. General Manager Dave Dombrowski explained that the Tigers did not tender Polanco a contract because they had their franchise second baseman in Scott Sizemore. After injuries shortened his 2010 campaign, Sizemore was given two months on the big league team before Dombrowski traded him away for a bullpen pitcher. And who did the Tigers have to play at second base that was better than Sizemore? Ryan Raburn of course. Seriously, he was their choice.

Raburn had been with the club since the beginning of 2007, mostly playing in the outfield and drawing the ire of Tigers fans. He takes poor routes to balls in the air, misplays them when they're on the ground and even allows fly balls to hop off his glove and into the bullpen for home runs. In general, he's a AAA player at the major league level.

But nevertheless, the powers that be have named him the Tigers starting second baseman for the foreseeable future. Not because he is the have proved that he deserves the starting job, but because the Tigers literally don't have anyone better at the position. Raburn is below average at best playing at second base, and manager Jim Leyland knows it, which is why Raburn is frequently subbed out for Ramon Santiago late in games.

A look at Raburn's stats proves that he should be nowhere near the starting lineup for the Tigers. Currently he is batting just above the Mendoza Line by the slightest of margins. With a batting average of .201 Raburn is doing little to nothing positive for the ball club. And as a batter he has posted a -12 Rbat, or the number of runs better or worse than the average hitter. Not to mention he is a -4 in the oRAR, offensive runs above replacement level.

But his offensive woes could be forgotten if he had a good glove in the field (see Brandon Inge). Only problem with that is that he is just as mediocre defensively as he is with the bat. In several important statistical categories Raburn falls well below the average mark for most second basemen; in Rtot, or Total Zone Total Fielding Runs Above Average, he has a -9. Which means that among all second basemen Raburn has surrendered nine more runs than the average player. And his Rdrs, Defensive Runs Saved Above Average, Raburn has an incredible -14, meaning that while playing second base he costs the Tigers 14 runs a season.

Stats like Raburn's show that he is a weakness for the Tigers, and in a what will be a close American League Central race Detroit cannot afford to keep fielding a player that consistently costs them runs and possibly games. For example, in the June 24 game against the Arizona Diamondbacks, Raburn was unable to field an easy double-play ball that lead to the inning being extended and the Tigers giving up three runs. 

Fans in Detroit have recognized that Raburn is a weakness for the Tigers and have taken to booing him at Comerica Park, which lead Leyland to comment that it is tough to get Tigers fans to boo a player. Meaning that Raburn has performed at such a level that the normally forgiving and understanding Tigers fans have turned on him and want him off the team.

While Raburn has been identified as a big problem for this club, the problem of trying to replace him still remains. His struggles are not just obvious to people in Detroit, surely GM's across the league have noticed and trying to trade him for anyone of value is simply ludicrous. The Tigers may go after a second baseman at the trade deadline, but don't expect them to trade Raburn for the likes of Jose Reyes. A more likely deal would include Raburn and a few prospects for a player such as an Adam Kennedy or Jack Wilson. Might as well trade Raburn for a bucket of baseballs, at least the Tigers can get some use out of the baseballs.

Thursday, June 23, 2011

Tigers Recall Brandon Inge; But Is It the Right Decision?

After a bout with mononucleosis landed Brandon Inge on the 15-day disabled list he headed to Toledo to shake off any rust that accumulated during his absence from the game; while there he struggled to regain his form and yet he is heading back to Detroit. The question is; why?

Inge has given everything to the Tigers franchise, he played through the lean years, endearing himself to fans by playing catcher and gunning out would-be base stealers before moving to the hot corner. While at third base, he was able to make highlight reel plays regularly, but despite his defensive prowess one thing has always lacked for Inge; his bat.

A career .235 hitter Inge has had periods where it looks like he has finally figured things out only to slip back into his old mold. Last season Tigers batting coach Llyod McClendon tweaked Inge's swing, having him cock the bat at an angle so the head of the bat almost faced the pitcher. Using this new stance Inge's offensive number climbed, but inexplicably he reverted to his old stance and with it came his old offensive numbers.

Tigers fans remember back in 2009 when Inge took part in the Home Run Derby in St. Louis. Going into the All Star break Inge was tied for fourth in the American League with 21 home runs, but in the Derby he hit a grand total of zero. None. And the rest of that season continued as such, his numbers slipped and he returned to being a defensive player.

The argument over the worth of Inge has always revolved around his defensive abilities, not his bat. In the past Inge has been so good defensively that he has been worth two wins a season for the club, but those times are behind him now. According to Baseball-Reference.com Inge has a WAR, wins above replacement, of -0.2, meaning that he actually costs the Tigers 0.2 games a season. Any number in the WAR column below zero indicates the player has reached "replacement level," meaning that their replacement is now worth more to the team than they are.  

Inge's replacement is Don Kelly and Kelly has some impressive stats in comparison to those of Inge. Kelly is has a WAR of 0.4, meaning that he is worth 0.4 wins a season for the Tigers. He is also worth four more runs a season than Inge, according to his RAR, runs above replacement. But Inge's value isn't with the bat but with the glove, right? Kelly has him beat there too. Kelly has a dWAR, defensive wins above replacement, of 0.4 while Inge posts a dWAR of -0.2. 

In WPA, win probability added for offensive player, Kelly again tops Inge. When Kelly starts a game for the Tigers he adds a 0.2 percent chance of winning, while Inge costs the Tigers 0.2 percent when he starts a game. When totaled Inge has a BtRuns, adjusted batting runs, of -8.5, which means that per season Inge is unable to score 8.5 runs that are on base for him. Kelly also costs the Tigers in this category but at a much more manageable number of -1.7.

Inge has given much for this team, and does deserve a chance to prove that he can improve himself, but the Tigers shouldn't give him too long. Statistically they have a better player waiting in the winds to replace him, and they can't afford to be giving up any games in a tight American League Central race this season.

Monday, June 20, 2011

Tigers Took a Right Turn at Alburquerque

Bugs Bunny jokes aside, Alberto Alburquerque is a force to be reckoned with on the mound. After putting up middling numbers throughout his minor league career Alburquerque's name is being thrown in All Star Game talks.

Alburquerque began his career in the Chicago Cubs organization before being traded to the Colorado Rockies farm system for Jeff Baker in 2009. He landed in Double-A Tulsa after the trade where he finished the 2009 campaign with a 1-3 record and a 3.74 ERA. Things didn't look much better for Alburquerque in 2010 when the Rockies removed him from their 40-man roster after he had gone 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA and a 32/19 K/BB ratio in 34 1/3 innings.

He suffered from migraines and other soreness after having four wisdom teeth removed in June 2010, which did not stop him from pitching but may have effected his abilities on the mound.

The Rockies gave up on him and Alburquerque found his way to the Dominican Republic to play winter ball. The Detroit Tigers have a heavily presence in the Dominican and the scout assigned to the country informed General Manager Dave Dombrowski to offer Alburquerque a contract because he had quality stuff and was attracting attention from other major league clubs.

The Tigers signed Alburquerque to a minor league contract in the off-season and he began the season in Toledo with the Triple-A Mudhens. He wouldn't stay there long; after throwing just three scoreless innings for Toledo the Tigers called him up to the big leagues on April 14. His stuff on the mound has improved as the season has progressed, showing that he is getting more comfortable with his abilities.

Alburquerque has electric stuff, his fastball can touch 95 mph and his slider is nearly unhittable. When most pitchers throw a slider, it has a tendency to slide east-to-west, but in Alburquerque's case, his slider slides north-to-south. Word has gotten around the league about his unique slider but it doesn't seem to have made an impact on Alburquerque's dominance.

Through 24 innings pitched Alburquerque has the second highest strikeouts per nine innings ever, his 15.00 K/9 is topped only by Carlos Marmol's 15.99/9 last season. While 24 innings is a miniscule amount of work to look at Alburquerque's numbers are something to be marveled at. He is racking up strikeouts at a record pace, becoming just the sixth pitcher ever to face at least 100 batters and strike out at least 40% of them.

It's not just strikeouts that Alburquerque is drawing attention from, he is on pace to break two of Eric Gagne's records, for slugging percentage against and batting average against. In 2003, Eric Gagne set major league records for putting up two incredible numbers a .133 BA and a .176 SLG. Alburquerque is on pace to shatter both of those records; currently he has a .122 BA and a .134 SLG.

While these numbers are awe inspiring they are not yet set in stone, a few bad games could shake Alburqueque up and might derail him from this torrid pace. Of the 18 runners that he has inherited he has allowed only one runner to score, and while has has allowed six runs in his 24 innings of work, none have scored in his last 11 games.

His stuff is electric and he is on a hot streak, right now Alburquerque is exactly what the Tigers need to get back atop the American League Central and pull away from the pack. And if he keeps up this pace, Justin Verlander just may have competition from within his own team for the American League Cy Young. 

Saturday, June 18, 2011

Alex Avila Coming Into His Own in 2011

Last season he drew the ire of Detroit Tigers fans; batting just .228 in 2010 Alex Avila did not look like the future every day catcher that he was supposed to be. Playing behind Gerald Laird at catcher helped to acclimate Avila to the big leagues and in 2011 he was christened the every day catcher. Some in Detroit questioned this move and as Avila started the season off slow the chatter about him grew louder, until he stepped up and silenced it.

Many doubted his abilities but Avila has quickly developed into a superb all-around catcher, in 2010 he struggled defensively behind the plate, finding himself unable to block a ball in the dirt or to corral wild pitches. His struggles behind the plate allowed runners to reach base or move up on the base paths; ultimately costing the Tigers runs and possibly games.

Offensively, Avila seemed to be thinking too much at the plate often reaching for pitches that were unhittable or allowing strikes to come across that he had thought would be balls. These struggles caused manager Jim Leyland to place Avila deep in the batting order, routinely seventh or eighth each night. While many managers would have given up on a struggling prospect and shipped them back to AAA to work on their mechanics, Leyland stuck with Avila giving him as many opportunities as possible to get behind the plate and to work on his hitting.

By the end of the 2010 season Avila had shown flashes of what he could become and Leyland had seen them; he had made Avila the top catcher on the depth chart and was getting him in nearly every game. Each time Avila went out he seemed to improve both defensively and offensively, though many in Detroit still saw him as a weakness instead of an asset to the club.

At 24 years old Avila is a youthful talent that has successfully navigated his way through the Tigers farm system, making it to the big leagues and showing the Tigers that they used their draft pick wisely. Avila attended the University of Alabama where he played baseball all four years, but only started catching in his junior season. In his first two years Avila played both first and third base, but his coach told him he would be a better fit behind the plate and he obliged, eventually being drafted as a catcher.

Avila's father, Al Avila, serves as the Detroit Tigers Vice President and Assistant General Manager, but when the Tigers were considering calling his son up from the minors to the big league club the senior Avila was disallowed from joining the meetings between Leyland and General Manager Dave Dombrowski as to avoid any conflict of interest.

In 2011, Avila was officially the Tigers every day catcher, despite their off-season signing of veteran Victor Martinez. While his season started slowly Avila has hit his stride and is showing no signs of slowing down, putting up career numbers this season. His ability to call games has improved significantly; he caught Justin Verlander during his no-hitter this season and again in his other two no-hit bids so far this season.

In his second year in the major leagues Avila seems to have found his groove and refuses to let anyone knock him out of it, through June 18th he leads all major league catchers in slugging percentage (.541), batting average (.301), doubles (14) and RBI (39). Avila has become an invaluable piece of the Tigers offense this season, leading Leyland to shuffle his lineups in a way as to keep his bat in the lineup as much as possible.

In the Tigers opener with the Colorado Rockies, Leyland started Avila at third base in order to keep his bat in the lineup. Avila was receptive to his appointment and was practicing short hops at third before the road trip, although he was missing one key piece of equipment. A third baseman's glove; Avila said that he never thought he would be playing third so he didn't have a glove; Tigers third baseman/outfielder Don Kelly lent Avila his glove for the game.

Throughout the game Avila fielded his position admirably for a guy who hadn't started a game at third base since his sophomore year at Alabama. He did commit one error while at the hot corner, but drew an early walk in the game that scored a run for Detroit. It is unsure how often Leyland will try to utilize Avila at third base during interleague play, but it is tough to see him keep a bat like Avila's out of the lineup for too long.

His popularity has grown, not just in Detroit, but across the nation. During a recent Fox Sports Detroit telecast one of the hosts went to the Tigers souvenir shop inside of Comerica Park on a mission to find an Avila jersey for her father for father's day only to be told they were back ordered because they can't keep them in stock. Nationwide, Avila is garnering respect in All Star balloting recently passing Joe Mauer for second place among American League catchers. As the season progresses Avila may pose a threat to Yankees catcher Russell Martin for the starting job in the Mid-Summer Classic.

Regardless of if Avila is named the starting catcher on the All Star team, he has proven that he is the Tigers catcher of the foreseeable future and will provide Detroit with the offense it needs as well as being the defensive wall every good catcher needs to be.

Wednesday, June 15, 2011

Is Justin Verlander the Best Pitcher in Baseball?

Justin Verlander fever is rampant after he pitched more than seven innings of no-hit ball for the third time this season, he's completed the no-no once this season, yesterday. His 12-6 curveball was biting and freezing batters who could only watch as it dropped into the zone for a strike, his fastball was overpowering and his change-up kept hitters guessing all night. At times it seemed unfair for Indians hitters to have to face the dominating rightie, nothing they did was working and Verlander held them hit less through 7 1/3 innings before surrendering a liner to centerfield by Orlando Cabrera.

After the game, Verlander was asked how he prepared for the game and his response was of the variety that makes him out to be Curt Schilling. He said that he studied the Indians line up and saw that they had stacked it with left handers, so he knew that he would have to have confidence in his secondary pitches. And that he did, the Indians were helpless against him.

While Verlander was unable to complete his second no-hitter of the year he was able to take a no-hit bid into the 8th inning for the third time this season. After his no-hitter in May of this season, Verlander was asked how many he wanted to get during his career and his answer was impressive; 7.

Seven may seem like an arbitrary number to some but to most seven career no-hitters is the mark of Nolan Ryan. Ryan tossed seven gems in his career, but the perfect game eluded him. By Verlander saying that he wants to reach the same level as Ryan he is setting himself up as the heir-apparent, which is music to Tigers fans ears.

With the kind of stuff that Verlander is featuring right now, it is obvious that he will at least get one more no-hitter to his name; he's just too good not to, but the final total remains to be seen. In an interview with ESPN's Baseball Tonight Verlander said that he thinks that he is only getting better as the season goes on, a scary thought for those in the American League.

The question now becomes; is Justin Verlander the best pitcher in baseball? The short answer; no. But he is quite close. The top pitchers in the league right now are Roy Halladay, Jered Weaver, Felix Hernandez, Cliff Lee and Justin Verlander. Verlander is superior to all of those pitchers, save one, Halladay. Last season Halladay threw two no-hitters; one being a perfect game, the other in the National League Division Series. 

Halladay is better than Verlander, for now. The former is 34 years old whereas Verlander is 28, if Verlander is this good now, just imagine what he will be like in his prime. As he said himself, he only thinks that he is improving and with a new friend in former-Tigers ace Jack Morris he has plenty of experience to draw on as the seasons go on.

Currently, Verlander has a 0.88 WHIP, which is the lowest in the entire league. A pitcher's WHIP is more indicative of their abilities than their ERA. A pitcher with a low WHIP is not allowing runners to reach base with much frequency, keeping his runs against low and securing wins regularly. According to the ESPN Cy Young Predictor, Verlander is currently in second place behind Weaver for the American League Cy Young with a probability percentage of 84.7%.

While he may not be the best pitcher in baseball right now, wait a few years and he will be. Keep your eyes and ears open for Verlander's name to be mentioned with the greats in no time.

Monday, June 13, 2011

Why Dombrowski Is Not a Fit For the Tigers

Current Detroit Tigers General Manager and President, Dave Dombrowski is a lightening rod in the city of Detroit to say the least. Take a poll of Tigers fans and you will get a vast variety of opinions on the GM; from a brilliant baseball mind to a man who has no idea what he is doing.

Whether or not he is the right man for the job, Dombrowski has definitely put his fingerprints on the Tigers organization; when he took the helm from Randy Smith in 2002 he presided over a ball club that went on to lose 119 games in 2003. With several unsuccessful seasons on the record the Tigers had a host of early draft picks, and under Dombrowksi they went on to build one of the most highly regarded farm systems in the league.

The Tigers continued to struggle but Dombrowski managed to instill enough confidence in Ivan Rodriguez to get him to sign a four year contract with Detroit in 2004. This signing helped to lure other veteran players to the club in the future. The following season Dombrowski made a controversial trade for the oft-injured Magglio Ordonez; coming off a severe injury many didn't believe Ordonez would ever return to form.

In 2006, the Tigers went on an improbable run all the way to the World Series against the St. Louis Cardinals. With a balance of veteran talent and young players, Detroit surprised everyone beating the New York Yankees in the Wild Card round of the playoffs and sweeping the Oakland Athletics in the American League Championship Series. They went on to win only one game against the Cardinals, losing the World Series in St. Louis in Game 5.

Because of the team's surprising success Dombrowski and his newly hired coach, Jim Leyland, were regarded in Detroit as brilliant baseball minds and any thoughts of not extending their contracts was considered blasphemy. However, the team that Leyland won with in 2006 was not his own, it had been put together by his predecessor Alan Trammel. Trammel was ousted from the coaching position after several losing seasons in Detroit; blame was placed on the manager for not winning, but no thought was given to the lack of talent provided to him by the general manager.

Dombrowski kept much of the 2006 American League Championship team intact for the 2007 season, even adding slugger Gary Sheffield to the lineup, but the Tigers failed to live up to expectations. Highlights of the season were the call-up's of top prospects Andrew Miller, Cameron Maybin and Jair Jurrjens to Detroit. Jurrjens impressed the most, coming from AAA Toledo and holding major league talent at bay for several starts.

In 2008, Dombrowski went for broke and auctioned the entire farm system in order to "win now." At the MLB Winter Meetings the Tigers traded top prospects Miller and Maybin to the Florida Marlins for Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera. Despite Willis' slumping numbers and unimpressive resume of late, Dombrowski extended Willis' contract. In the same off season, Dombrowski traded away Jurrjens for aging shortstop Edgar Renteria of the Atlanta Braves. 

Baseball analysts across the country deemed the Tigers the team to beat in 2008, unfortunately Dombrowski had not anticipated the team chemistry and general ineffectiveness of the team that he had assembled. The team boasted the second highest payroll in the MLB, $138 million, but finished the season 74-88.

When the Tigers moved from Tiger Stadium to the beautiful Comerica Park, there was no adjustment in their team philosophy as there should have been. At Tiger Stadium, Detroit could play station to station baseball and lean heavily on home runs, but in Comerica Park they were given much more room to work with but continued to play their old style of baseball.

Baseball is the one sport in which home-field advantage means the most, because each team is free to design their stadium, and field, to whatever they like. Look at Fenway Park, the Green Monster robs many players of home runs while allowing the Red Sox outfielders to play caroms off the wall in a way that gives them an advantage over visiting players. Whereas in San Diego an outfielder running towards a fly ball in right field disappears from view while he makes a play on the ball.

Comerica Park is designed for a team that runs and does not play a station to station game, the team that inhabits Comerica Park should be one that can hit balls into the gaps and leg out doubles and triples. The stadium is designed to be favorable to balls hit to the gaps, and yet Dombrowski has not adapted the Tigers to fit the stadium where they play 81 games a year.

During Dombrowski's tenure, he has traded away so much of the farm system that it has gone from being ranked #3 among MLB clubs to #29. He has failed repeatedly in the MLB Draft, following his ideas instead of following the needs of the Detroit Tigers. The prototypical Dombrowski draft pick is a right handed college pitcher who throws 99 mph. Despite the need the Tigers have at second base and at third base, Dombrowski has continued to draft pitching prospects that never seem to pan out. In the 2011 MLB Draft, the first overall selection of the Detroit Tigers was a catcher out of Alabama, despite the Tigers having young Alex Avila as the catcher of the future. Dombrowski refused to address the problems the Tigers have at second base and instead selected more pitchers to add to the farm system.

Dombrowski has had more than eight years in the general managers position and he has repeatedly failed to field a successful product, and he has refused to adapt the Tigers to fit Comerica Park and take advantage of the benefits it offers. At the end of the 2011 season Dombrowski's contract is set to expire, for the sake of baseball in the city of Detroit let us hope that his contract runs out.