Tuesday, August 21, 2012

What Should the Tigers 2013 Bullpen Look Like?


By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It's clear that the bullpen has struggled at time for the Detroit Tigers this season. When the bats are hot the pen is cold, very rarely do the two ever sync up to provide Jim Leyland with a complete team effort. With so many relievers struggling this season, there appears as though there will be quite the turnover next season in the Tigers bullpen. Here's what I would like to see out beyond the left field wall.

First off, lose Jose Valverde. Yes, it was impossible for him to repeat his performance from the 2011 campaign in which he converted 49 of 49 save opportunities. He also appeared in a career-high 75 games in 2011, but things haven't been as smooth this season.

In 2011, Valverde sported a 2.24 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP, but in 2012 those numbers have ballooned to 3.62 and 1.228 respectively, not exactly closer caliber numbers. He has turned in an admirable season though, but it won't be enough to live up to the surely high salary that he will demand when he becomes a free agent after this year.

There are too many young arms in this organization to throw money away on someone who gets their nickname from a spud.

Octavio Dotel has a club option on his contract and given his performance in this campaign they will likely pick it up to bring him back into the bullpen for another season. A good move on their part. Dotel consistently gives the Tigers solid innings when they call on him, as with any reliever his ERA is a bit elevated at 2.95 but his 0.914 WHIP much more indicative of how well he is performing this year.

Retaining Dotel in the bullpen would be a good move for Detroit and they will most likely do just that.

The number of current bullpen members that should be in the 2013 pen should be small, they have not proven that they are quality relievers and should not be trusted in tight situations.

With Dotel returning, Detroit needs to return Duane Below to the bullpen and keep him their as their long reliever. Below has not been as consistent as he was last season, but he gives the Tigers innings out of the pen, and they happen to be from a lefty, something that is rare on this team.

In 2012, Below has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, not the greatest numbers but his K/9 and SO/BB ratios remain good enough to anoint him as the long reliever to come out of the Tigers bullpen. He has a 5.6 K/9 and a 3.63 SO/BB ratio, both of which are evident of a solid long relief man.

Phil Coke has also drawn the ire of Tigers fans several times this season, but he has shown that when he is on, he can be a great situational lefty Detroit can run out in the later innings. His 3.78 ERA and 1.615 WHIP are scary high, but he has had a few outings in which he has imploded which has elevated his numbers as a whole.

 If Coke can regain his early season form he will become a valuable part of this Tigers bullpen in 2013. He continues to be under Detroit's control until 2015, so he will continue to be a familiar face in the pen, although not necessarily a bad one.

Joaquin Benoit should be the last member of this season's bullpen to keep their job in 2013. While it appears to many that Benoit is having a terrible season, he is in fact having a very good statistical year. With a 1.074 WHIP and 3.33 ERA Benoit is more often than not going out and giving the Tigers solid innings late in games.

Being under team control until 2014, Benoit will definitely return to the bullpen in 2013 but given his numbers are remarkably similar to what they were in 2011, he appears to be a consistent pitcher who will be good to have in the bullpen for another season.

To those returning four pitchers there must be three new faces, some more familiar than others.

The first player that must be in the bullpen is Brayan Villarreal, granted he is currently in the bullpen but given his supposed arm troubles he may not stay there for the remainder of the year. Villarreal gave the Tigers consistently good innings, even leading some to call for him to take Valverde's closer role, but then he had a bad weekend and complained of arm weakness, even though the doctor he was sent to see found no injury.

Statistically speaking, Villarreal is having a great season. Much like Benoit, despite the numbers being in his favor the fans aren't. He has a 2.29 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP, both evident of a strong pitcher who consistently has control of his pitches when he takes the mound.

The next is Bruce Rondon. Fans may have heard a lot about Rondon and his blazing fastball, but many don't know much more than that. During 2012, Rondon has advanced from Single-A Lakeland all the way to Triple-A Toledo and has a combined 1.31 ERA and 1.042 WHIP. Staggering numbers for a 22-year old.

He will need more time in Toledo before he is considered for the Tigers, but he will undoubtedly get an invite to spring training and if he has mastered a few off-speed pitches to keep batters from sitting on his fastball, then he needs to be in the Detroit bullpen. Having an Aroldis Chapman type player in the bullpen is like having a secret weapon that can be brought out at any time and end a threat.

There still would be the question of who fills the closer role left vacant by Valverde, and there is a simple fix for that, the man who nearly won rookie of the year last season and has a devastating change-up, Mr. Al Alburquerque.  

Alburquerque is currently on a rehab assignment with the Lakeland Flying Tigers and Toledo Mud Hens; in his nine total innings pitched he has combined for a 4.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. Not exactly the numbers you want to see from a future closer. But he is incredibly rusty, having not played in a game since he was struck in the head by a fly ball during batting practice in Baltimore in 2011.

Once Alburquerque can shake off the rust and get his pitches working again he should regain his form and be able to return to the Detroit bullpen. When he was healthy, Alburquerque could throw his change-up to batters even when they knew it was coming and still beat them with it. Add that to a solid fastball and another pitch that he was working on prior to his injury and you have yourself a very good, very cheap new closer.

In all the Detroit Tigers 2013 bullpen needs to look like this in order for them to have any hope of success;
RHP: Octavio Dotel, Brayan Villarreal, Joaquin Benoit, Bruce Rondon, Al Alburquerque
LHP: Duane Below, Phil Coke.

Sunday, August 19, 2012

Tigers Trade For Sanchez Among Dombrowski's Worst



By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

Starting pitching was supposed to be the savior of this ball club; yes, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera can rip the cover off the ball, but when's the last time you heard "two big hitters beat good pitching"? Fielder and Cabrera have done just that several times this season, but when it comes down to it, good, solid starting pitching is the backbone of any successful club, and this club doesn't have that.

Of the Tigers five starters only one has an ERA under 3.20, that is Justin Verlander and his ERA is 2.53. A far cry from his Cy Young numbers of last season. Detroit's WHIP numbers aren't much better, each pitcher has a 1.0+ WHIP. Verlander once again setting the pace with a 1.01 with Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez trailing in that order.

All hasn't been bad for general manager Dave Dombrowski, but his moves this season haven't clicked the same way they did last year. When Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a deal that sent two of Detroit's top prospects to Miami for a veteran starter and a second baseman, things looked good. Sanchez had a no-hitter under his belt and was receiving very little run support in Miami, reminiscent of Fister, but since he has been in Detroit his ERA is 7.97 and he sports a WHIP of 2.11. Those numbers are numbers that should be coming from a spot starter up from Double-A.

Omar Infante has stepped up and fit perfectly into the Tigers roster, giving them exactly what they needed in every aspect. With Infante, Detroit now has an every day second baseman who can actually field the position and they know what they will get from him at the plate, and that is hit around .300.

While Infante is a nice get, he was a throw in piece in the trade, meaning that Dombrowski is on the hook for how Sanchez performs more so than Infante. And from the looks of it, Dombrowski blew yet another trade for the Tigers. He traded away the Tigers top pitching prospect, a guy who will be a No. 1 starter, and a top catching prospect.

Rob Brantly, the catcher, was a bit of a trade chip to begin with. With Alex Avila having solidified himself as the starter behind the plate there is a battle for the back-up role, Gerald Laird currently fills that spot but Brantly had his eyes set on that job. But they still have James McCann to step in and fill that role.

Turner is the biggest loss and when Sanchez's time with the Tigers comes to a merciful end and he signs with another team, this trade will become one of the worst Dombrowski has ever inked. He traded two top prospects for a second baseman, that he previously traded in an equally terrible deal, and the king-of-all-dud's pitcher.

When the Tigers miss the postseason, it's on Dombrowski, but good thing he got that contract extension, because Detroit is definitely a better team with him pulling the reins. Note the sarcasm.

Monday, August 13, 2012

Tigers Bullpen Will Make them Miss Playoffs

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

To be honest, Anibal Sanchez didn't have a good game, something that is becoming a bit of a routine in a Tigers uniform. But when Manager Jim Leyland finally, mercifully, gave him the hook on Monday night, the Tigers were down just 3-1 to the lowly Minnesota Twins. That was before the bullpen got the ball.

After Sanchez struggled, Leyland went to his situational lefty Phil Coke, instead of his more reliable long-relief man, Duane Below. Coke has experienced his own struggles of late, and things weren't much different Monday night. The Twins were able to plate both of the runners that Coke inherited and then went on to beat up on the aforementioned Below.

In the seventh inning Ryan Doumit crushed a Below offering for three runs that gave the Twins an insurmountable lead. The offense wasn't able to hit a pitcher that had been described as wild and the pitcher that the Tigers traded a future No. 1 starter for continued to do less than impress, but the bullpen sealed the casket on this game.

After the game it was announced that Detroit was sending Duane Below to Toledo and recalling Luke Putkonen. While this move is clearly not motivated by Below's performance, it goes to show that the bullpen has been so poor lately that it has been taxed to the point that the Tigers are forced to bring in fresh arms from the minors to keep up with the innings needed.

Why it was Below that was sent down and not the hit serving Coke or Brayan Villarreal is not known. But this Tigers team needs changes in the bullpen and they need them now. When Al Albuquerque comes off the DL he needs to be in the pen, Below needs to be in the pen and Villarreal needs to be riding the pine in Toledo while Detroit gets a look at the phenom known as Bruce Rondon.

Sunday, August 12, 2012

Villarreal Claims Elbow Weakness

By Sean Gagnier

Brayan Villarreal has not had a good weekend for the Tigers; he struggled in the ninth inning on Saturday, walking the first two batters he faced, one of which came around to score the winning run.

He struggled again on Sunday after Manager Jim Leyland ran him out there the day after his struggles. Leyland likes to get relievers back on the mound as soon as he can after they struggle so they can improve and shake off any bad feelings.

That wasn't the case for Villarreal, but now he says that he is experiencing arm fatigue. Villarreal claims that his arm feels weak and the Tigers are sending him to a specialist to examine his arm to find the source of the weakness.

He was considered by some to be a closer option, he threw hard and his stuff had good movement, but Detroit's recent track record with promising pitchers who can throw hard isn't all that stellar. Arm weakness could be many things, but it is likely a strained muscle or tendon, elbow tendinitis, a muscle or tendon tear or a dead arm. All of those things are bad, but not the end of the world.

Jacob Turner experienced a dead arm earlier in the season and was sat down for a while, it took a while to work back to his previous level but when he got there it was like nothing had happened. In fact, Turner looked so good that the Marlins asked for him in a trade.

Detroit will just have to wait and see what they hear on Villarreal's arm.