Saturday, April 2, 2011

The Way Too Early MLB National League Postseason Projection

The season is underway and every team feels like it has a chance to do something special this year and to make a run to the World Series, however most of those teams won't even make it to the postseason. Strategy and clever roster moves are needed to steer teams to October baseball, some teams have what it takes, others don't. The National League requires managers to run games like chess matches, moving players around the diamond to counter the opposing manager and force him into falling into a trap. Pinch-runners and double-switches become common place in the National League as well as the always interesting pitcher batting. The National League is tough to play in and it isn't getting any easier.

National League East

Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have assembled one of the most impressive starting rotations in the history of the game, they feature four pitchers that would each be the ace of any other team's staff. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and the newly acquired Cliff Lee. Philadelphia snatched Lee away from the Yankees in the off-season, they didn't pay him as much as New York would have but the atmosphere and the opportunity to pitch in the kind of rotation the Phillies have was just too much to pass up. Halladay threw a perfect game last season for the Phillies and then threw a no-hitter in the playoffs, proving that he is one of the best pitchers in the game today. The pitching staff is overwhelming to opponents, there are no weak points and very little hope of getting very many runs off the starters, this club has the pitching potential to win any series. Offense is where the Phillies lose ground, all of the batters on the team, save Ben Francisco, are over 30 years old and with age comes injury and this team can't afford to have any of it's starters on the DL. 2B Chase Utley has done just that, he injured his knee in the pre-season and has had to be placed on the disabled list. Utley says that he plans on playing before the All-Star break, but doctors are unsure of the severity of his injury and whether or not he will require surgery. Without a bonafide second baseman the Phillies become weak up the middle without enough depth to spread around. 1B Ryan Howard has lost some of his power in recent years, but is in no way less of a threat at the plate, he is still capable of finding the seats. If the Phillies pitching can live up to its hype, then their offense will be able to get enough runs across to win games.

National League Central

Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee isn't the team that most would expect to find its way to the post-season but with the St. Louis Cardinals having lost Adam Wainwright for the season the division opens way up and the Brewers are the type of team to fill that gap. The Brewers had a successful pitching rotation last season but with the trade in the off-season that brought Zach Greinke to Milwaukee the pitching staff appears to be ready to help this team make a run to the post-season. Yovani Gallardo remains on the team as a solid young right-handed starter, he could benefit greatly from having Greinke on the staff with him. Randy Wolf is the left-hander for this team and brings a pedigree with him each time he steps on the mound. Despite the rib injury that has sent Greinke to the DL to begin the season, the Brewers pitching rotations is one of the best in the division. 1B Prince Fielder is due for a big year this year, as fantasy owners know Fielder is one of the best in the big leagues in odd-numbered years. In a contract year Fielder will be auditioning for his next team all season long, and as long as the Brew Crew are in the hunt come August they will keep him on the club. The addition of Nyjer Morgan to the outfield brings blazing speed and a bit of attitude to a group that already includes Ryan Braun. Braun has become one of the top hitting outfielders in the league despite being only 27 years old. Milwaukee is the unlikely choice, but with the quality of their pitching and the power of their bats this team could easily make a run. 

National League West

Projected Winner: San Francisco Giants

The Giants stunned the baseball world last season by taking a group of relatively unknown players and making them World Series Champions, with the bulk of that team returning this season the post-season is in the picture once again. The most noticeable part of this team is the stringy-haired right-handed pitcher Tim Lincecum. Lincecum, only 26 years old, already has two Cy Young awards and a World Series ring he is without a doubt one of the best pitchers in the major leagues. But the San Francisco rotation features more than just "The Freak," it boasts Matt Cain and left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito. Zito remains the question mark for this Giants pitching staff, if he is on his game he can throw a three-hitter but if he is not feeling it one game he can be lit up for eight runs. But as a fifth starter the Giants could do much worse than Zito. Rookie catching sensation, Buster Posey came up to the Giants in the middle of the season last year and immediately took control of the pitching staff guiding them to a World Series title. Posey, 24, was an unlikely person to command respect from the team, most rookies are expected to be seen and not heard, but Posey shook that idea off and made himself known on the team right away. Up the middle the Giants have 2B Mike Fontenot and SS Miguel Tejada who combine to be quite the team, knocking down balls and taking away runs at both second and first base. 1B Aubrey Huff brings left-handed power to this line-up while contributing good fielding at the the first base position. This club can get runs in and is more than capable of getting the ball to the bullpen with a lead, and the anchor of the San Francisco bullpen is Brian Wilson. Wilson, who started the season on the DL, boasts one of the most impressive ninth-inning repertoires as well as one of the best beards in baseball. "Fear the Beard" took over the Bay Area last season as Giants fans recognized that they had one of the premiere closers in the game on their mound. This is a team that has managed to do the unthinkable, shake off the Barry Bonds stigma and to win a World Series on pure heart and raw talent.

National League Wild-Card

Projected Winner: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will challenge the Philadelphia Phillies for the National League East, but will not be able to out pitch them, instead having to settle for the Wild Card berth. The Braves are no slouches when it comes to pitching, despite having a rotation of all right-handed hurlers they will be able to miss some bats during the season. Derek Lowe recorded 16 wins last season with a 4.00 ERA, he will be one of the most important pieces of this Braves rotation. Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson all populate Atlanta's rotation and each is capable of being a 15 game winner this year. Hudson and Hanson each bring their veteran skills to this team and will be able to stop any skids that Atlanta may get on. Jurrjens is a younger pitcher, but he has quality stuff and has already benefited from being around Hudson and Lowe. Offense is where the Braves shine this year, OF Jason Heyward made his name known early in his rookie season last year, hitting a home run on Opening Day, a feat which he repeated on Opening Day 2011. Heyward brings left-handed power to the Atlanta line-up as well as excellent fielding ability. Iron-man 3B Chipper Jones returns this year, despite some health concerns, and will bring a grit to the line-up that all teams need. New to Atlanta this year is 2B Dan Uggla, who was acquired in a deal with Florida. Uggla has consistently been one of the best batting and fielding second basemen in the league without the help of any protection in the Marlins line-up. Having the likes of Jones and Heyward around him in Atlanta will give Uggla the ability to see more pitches and possibly even boost his numbers from his days in Florida. The Braves will make the NL East much more interesting than most people believe it will be, but ultimately take the Wild Card berth.    

Thursday, March 31, 2011

The Way Too Early MLB American League Postseason Projection

With Opening Day 2011 now in the past, it becomes time to sit down and take a serious look at your team and evaluate the talent that inhabits the roster. Does a team have enough speed? Are there any left-handed power hitters on the roster? Is the team strong up the middle and at catcher? All of these questions are important to a successful ball club, some teams have what it takes, some will acquire it at the deadline and others will be sellers in August once again.

American League East

Projected winner: Boston Red Sox

The Red Sox went out this off-season and splurged on several high profile players, and they definitely got value with their money. New to Boston this year is 1B Adrian Gonzalez, the powerful left-handed bat that all teams dream of. Gonzalez was shipped to the Red Sox in the offseason from the San Diego Padres who deemed him too expensive to try to resign. Boston has yet to ink Gonzalez to an extension, but according to reports the two sides are nearing an agreement. GM Theo Epstein also snatched LF Carl Crawford away from the Yankees in the offseason, agreeing to pay the outfielder $10,000,000 a season. Crawford, another left-handed hitter, has blazing speed on the base paths and should fit right in at Fenway Park and its triple alley. Add in one of the best pitching staff's in the American League, bolstered by Jon Lester and Josh Beckett and anchored by Jonathan Papelbon, and the Red Sox look to be the team to beat in the East. The only concerns are with backstop Jarrod Saltalamacchia, who is still learning to play the position at the MLB level. Saltalamacchia could either be the hero or goat of this team, at 25 years old it is not clear if he is ready to control a pitching staff or call a game effectively, but if he can earn the trust of his pitching staff, there's no telling how far this Red Sox team can go.





American League Central

Projected Winner: Chicago White Sox

The cause of the Sox collapse last season was their lack of left-handed power at the plate, they were a two-dimensional line-up and pitchers could pick them apart. Opposing pitchers will be wishing the White Sox were two-dimensional again with the addition of DH Adam Dunn to the roster in the off-season. Dunn was highly coveted by several teams across the league, but he eventually signed with Chicago to fill their open designated hitter slot. Chicago now boasts a line-up that includes Dunn, Paul Konerko, Alexi Ramirez, Carlos Quentin and Alex Rios. With a strong roster of batters the Sox turn to pitching and they still have Mark Buehrle and Edwin Jackson and by the middle of the season they will have a healthy Jake Peavy. The White Sox are always an aggressive team and play as such, with the added power of Dunn they will be able to outpace the Minnesota Twins in September to capture the Central Division. The bullpen for the Sox appears to be the question mark for the club, with the loss of Bobby Jenks there is no proven closer to take the ball in the ninth-inning. Should one of Chicago's pitchers find their own in the ninth, there is nothing stopping this club from rolling into the post-season.   

American League West

Projected Winner: Texas Rangers

The Rangers went all the way to the World Series in 2010, with a mix of tested veterans and unproven rookies, this season the core of that World Series team returns to Arlington, Texas and doesn't show signs of slowing down. In the weak American League West it doesn't take much to win the division, but the Rangers show signs of challenging for the American League title for a second consecutive year. Left-handed power hitter Josh Hamilton returns and shows no signs of wear and tear from the lengthy season in 2010, having Hamilton in the line-up makes opposing pitchers pitch differently to avoid setting up any big RBI situations for Hamilton. 2010 American League Rookie of the Year Neftali Feliz has been tapped as the closer in Texas, which makes sense seeing as he had 42 saves last season. There are several questions with this Texas club including the multiple trade requests made by 3B Michael Young, who has been with the Rangers for years. The Gold Glove third baseman did not take kindly to being moved around the infield to make room for newly acquired Adrian Beltre and made it clear that he no longer wanted to stay in Arlington. The other question mark for this team is the pitching staff, will their rotation of relatively unknown starters be able to get the ball to Feliz or will they be unable to give the team enough quality starts to win the division. 

American League Wild Card

Projected Winner: New York Yankees

The Yankees put all of their chips in the Cliff Lee basket and he ended up in Philadelphia instead of the Bronx; Andy Pettitte retired in the off-season and A.J. Burnett has turned out to be one of the worst contracts in quite some time. Starting pitching is the Yankees weakness in 2010, but their bullpen remains one of the best of the best anchored by the ageless wonder Marino Rivera, only 40 saves shy of 600 for his career. C.C. Sabathia is the ace of this Yankees staff, and after having cut Captain Crunch out of his diet in the off-season he is 25 pounds lighter, but the other four pitchers are not up to Yankees standards. Pitching woes aside New York again has one of the best offenses in the league, adding C Russell Martin to the club only strengthening a solid team. Gold Glove 1B Mark Teixeira will again take advantage of the short porch in right field at Yankee Stadium and will provide a strong left-handed bat in the line-up. SS Derek Jeter still prowls the infield and up-and-coming 2B Robinson Cano returns ready to take the league by storm. With Alex Rodriguez and Nick Swisher still on this team, the Yankees roll out an impressive offensive attack each game. The pitching questions just outweigh the offensive positives and the Bronx Bombers fall short in the American League East race to the Boston Red Sox but just edge out the Minnesota Twins to claim the American League Wild Card.