Saturday, April 2, 2011

The Way Too Early MLB National League Postseason Projection

The season is underway and every team feels like it has a chance to do something special this year and to make a run to the World Series, however most of those teams won't even make it to the postseason. Strategy and clever roster moves are needed to steer teams to October baseball, some teams have what it takes, others don't. The National League requires managers to run games like chess matches, moving players around the diamond to counter the opposing manager and force him into falling into a trap. Pinch-runners and double-switches become common place in the National League as well as the always interesting pitcher batting. The National League is tough to play in and it isn't getting any easier.

National League East

Projected Winner: Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have assembled one of the most impressive starting rotations in the history of the game, they feature four pitchers that would each be the ace of any other team's staff. Roy Halladay, Roy Oswalt, Cole Hamels, Joe Blanton and the newly acquired Cliff Lee. Philadelphia snatched Lee away from the Yankees in the off-season, they didn't pay him as much as New York would have but the atmosphere and the opportunity to pitch in the kind of rotation the Phillies have was just too much to pass up. Halladay threw a perfect game last season for the Phillies and then threw a no-hitter in the playoffs, proving that he is one of the best pitchers in the game today. The pitching staff is overwhelming to opponents, there are no weak points and very little hope of getting very many runs off the starters, this club has the pitching potential to win any series. Offense is where the Phillies lose ground, all of the batters on the team, save Ben Francisco, are over 30 years old and with age comes injury and this team can't afford to have any of it's starters on the DL. 2B Chase Utley has done just that, he injured his knee in the pre-season and has had to be placed on the disabled list. Utley says that he plans on playing before the All-Star break, but doctors are unsure of the severity of his injury and whether or not he will require surgery. Without a bonafide second baseman the Phillies become weak up the middle without enough depth to spread around. 1B Ryan Howard has lost some of his power in recent years, but is in no way less of a threat at the plate, he is still capable of finding the seats. If the Phillies pitching can live up to its hype, then their offense will be able to get enough runs across to win games.

National League Central

Projected Winner: Milwaukee Brewers

Milwaukee isn't the team that most would expect to find its way to the post-season but with the St. Louis Cardinals having lost Adam Wainwright for the season the division opens way up and the Brewers are the type of team to fill that gap. The Brewers had a successful pitching rotation last season but with the trade in the off-season that brought Zach Greinke to Milwaukee the pitching staff appears to be ready to help this team make a run to the post-season. Yovani Gallardo remains on the team as a solid young right-handed starter, he could benefit greatly from having Greinke on the staff with him. Randy Wolf is the left-hander for this team and brings a pedigree with him each time he steps on the mound. Despite the rib injury that has sent Greinke to the DL to begin the season, the Brewers pitching rotations is one of the best in the division. 1B Prince Fielder is due for a big year this year, as fantasy owners know Fielder is one of the best in the big leagues in odd-numbered years. In a contract year Fielder will be auditioning for his next team all season long, and as long as the Brew Crew are in the hunt come August they will keep him on the club. The addition of Nyjer Morgan to the outfield brings blazing speed and a bit of attitude to a group that already includes Ryan Braun. Braun has become one of the top hitting outfielders in the league despite being only 27 years old. Milwaukee is the unlikely choice, but with the quality of their pitching and the power of their bats this team could easily make a run. 

National League West

Projected Winner: San Francisco Giants

The Giants stunned the baseball world last season by taking a group of relatively unknown players and making them World Series Champions, with the bulk of that team returning this season the post-season is in the picture once again. The most noticeable part of this team is the stringy-haired right-handed pitcher Tim Lincecum. Lincecum, only 26 years old, already has two Cy Young awards and a World Series ring he is without a doubt one of the best pitchers in the major leagues. But the San Francisco rotation features more than just "The Freak," it boasts Matt Cain and left-handers Madison Bumgarner, Jonathan Sanchez and Barry Zito. Zito remains the question mark for this Giants pitching staff, if he is on his game he can throw a three-hitter but if he is not feeling it one game he can be lit up for eight runs. But as a fifth starter the Giants could do much worse than Zito. Rookie catching sensation, Buster Posey came up to the Giants in the middle of the season last year and immediately took control of the pitching staff guiding them to a World Series title. Posey, 24, was an unlikely person to command respect from the team, most rookies are expected to be seen and not heard, but Posey shook that idea off and made himself known on the team right away. Up the middle the Giants have 2B Mike Fontenot and SS Miguel Tejada who combine to be quite the team, knocking down balls and taking away runs at both second and first base. 1B Aubrey Huff brings left-handed power to this line-up while contributing good fielding at the the first base position. This club can get runs in and is more than capable of getting the ball to the bullpen with a lead, and the anchor of the San Francisco bullpen is Brian Wilson. Wilson, who started the season on the DL, boasts one of the most impressive ninth-inning repertoires as well as one of the best beards in baseball. "Fear the Beard" took over the Bay Area last season as Giants fans recognized that they had one of the premiere closers in the game on their mound. This is a team that has managed to do the unthinkable, shake off the Barry Bonds stigma and to win a World Series on pure heart and raw talent.

National League Wild-Card

Projected Winner: Atlanta Braves

The Atlanta Braves will challenge the Philadelphia Phillies for the National League East, but will not be able to out pitch them, instead having to settle for the Wild Card berth. The Braves are no slouches when it comes to pitching, despite having a rotation of all right-handed hurlers they will be able to miss some bats during the season. Derek Lowe recorded 16 wins last season with a 4.00 ERA, he will be one of the most important pieces of this Braves rotation. Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson all populate Atlanta's rotation and each is capable of being a 15 game winner this year. Hudson and Hanson each bring their veteran skills to this team and will be able to stop any skids that Atlanta may get on. Jurrjens is a younger pitcher, but he has quality stuff and has already benefited from being around Hudson and Lowe. Offense is where the Braves shine this year, OF Jason Heyward made his name known early in his rookie season last year, hitting a home run on Opening Day, a feat which he repeated on Opening Day 2011. Heyward brings left-handed power to the Atlanta line-up as well as excellent fielding ability. Iron-man 3B Chipper Jones returns this year, despite some health concerns, and will bring a grit to the line-up that all teams need. New to Atlanta this year is 2B Dan Uggla, who was acquired in a deal with Florida. Uggla has consistently been one of the best batting and fielding second basemen in the league without the help of any protection in the Marlins line-up. Having the likes of Jones and Heyward around him in Atlanta will give Uggla the ability to see more pitches and possibly even boost his numbers from his days in Florida. The Braves will make the NL East much more interesting than most people believe it will be, but ultimately take the Wild Card berth.    

1 comment:

  1. For some reason, I think the Dodgers will win the NL West, but overall, I think your predictions are accurate.

    -- Adam

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