Monday, July 11, 2011

Assessing the Tigers at the All-Star Break

The Detroit Tigers are in first place in the American League Central at the All-Star break, but just how good is this team?

After 92 games the Tigers are 49-43, above .500 but nothing to write home about. Their series against the Kansas City Royals was their first series win in quite some time. At the break, the Tigers aren't playing badly but they're not looking like World Series Champions either.

There are many success stories on this Tigers team, but it looks more like the haves and the have nots for Detroit. Detroit sports five, almost six, All Stars on their roster but beyond that there isn't much there. The Tigers have one of the best hitting first basemen in the league in Miguel Cabrera. And with the protection he is getting in the lineup from Victor Martinez they very well could be the best 4-5 hitters in the league.

It's difficult to put an exact value on just how important Justin Verlander is to this team, aside from being the clear ace of this staff he is often times needed to be the stopper as well. In his last nine starts Verlander has gone 7+ innings and surrendered two runs or less. He leads the league with a 0.87 WHIP and trails only CC Sabathia in wins going into the break (12). Verlander is also tied for the league lead in strikeouts with Clayton Kershaw at 147.

Short stop Jhonny Peralta is having a career season, and was honored by being named to the All-Star team after Derek Jeter pulled out of the occasion. He joins Jose Valverde in Arizona after Valverde completed 24 of 24 save opportunities before the break.

While there are multiple bright spots on this Tigers team, there are many more holes that continue to hamper Detroit's success. Mainly Brandon Inge and Ryan Raburn.

Since returning from a bout with mononucleosis Inge has not lived up to expectations, not that he had before his illness. At the break Inge is batting .184 with 1 HR and 17 RBI, leading even him to call his performance so far "embarrassing." Manager Jim Leyland has stated that unless Inge can improve his numbers he will have to make adjustments.

This threat on his part is backed up by the surprising play at third base by Don Kelly. Kelly had been utilized more as an outfielder prior to Inge's ailment but was placed at third base during his absence. He has shown that he is not a stranger to outstanding fielding at the hot corner, handling his new position quite well.

While most days he puts on his third baseman's glove he has shown that he can literally do anything asked of him playing; all of the outfield positions, third base, second base, catcher and pitcher this season. In his career Kelly has played at all nine positions on the field, showing his outstanding versatility.

Raburn is another thorn in the side of the Detroit Tigers, while he has shown some flickers of being an average player he has struggled mightily this season. After beginning the season in the outfield Raburn was moved to second base when the Tigers traded Scott Sizemore to Oakland. This move was supposed to help improve the infield defensively and provide more offense than Sizemore did. With Raburn struggling to stay over the Mendoza Line this season, it hardly seems to be working.

The solution that the Tigers seems to be mulling to fill the hole at second base is to bring Carlos Guillen back as a second baseman. Guillen has been bothered by knee problems this season having spend the overwhelming majority of it on the DL or in the minors.

In nine games with the Toledo Mud Hens Guillen is batting .281 with 1 HR and 7 RBI. Adding in his four games with the Lakeland Flying Tigers his minor league batting average is .255 with 1 HR and 9 RBI. He was sent to the Erie SeaWolves to continue getting games in while both the Mud Hens and the Tigers are on All-Star breaks.

While Guillen may seem to be an easy fit for the second base spot, his lack of mobility and offensive struggles will not help this team in the playoff push. He was relieved of his short stop duties because of the wear and tear on his knees, then when he was moved to the outfield he again encountered knee troubles. It seems as though it is not the positions at which Guillen plays that is the problem, but Guillen himself. His body is deteriorating and with it, his value.

But the major problem facing this team is starting pitching, beyond Verlander the Tigers rotation is streaky. Brad Penny consistently gives a heroic effort but consistently gets very little in the way of run support. He is more of a fourth or fifth starter as opposed to the second man in the rotation.

Max Scherzer began the season on a tear, but his WHIP caught up to him stalling him at nine wins at the break. Scherzer frequently provides the Tigers with quality starts and then finds himself unable to find the plate, but he is a good fit for the third spot in the rotation. Rick Porcello shows flashes of what he could be, but can't consistently give Detroit the quality starts it needs. Porcello is a contact pitcher and does get many ground balls, but the Tigers inept defense frequently allows these to find the outfield. He could be a second starter in the future but for the time being, he is well suited for the fourth spot.

The fifth starter is more of a problem for the Tigers, with Leyland demoting Phil Coke back to the bullpen Detroit is left to find a starter from within. Their latest attempt was with Charlie Furbush, a pitcher who nearly made the club out of spring training. He had been clutch out of the bullpen for the Tigers and gave an admirable performance in his first major league start. In his second, however, he was hammered in 2 2/3 innings and subsequently sent down to Toledo to get more work.

Detroit will be buyers at the trade deadline, but don't expect any big names to be donning the Olde English D, the Tigers don't have the farm system to facilitate such a trade. General Manager Dave Dombrowski will need to make a decision on which aspect of the team to attempt to fix, should he choose to fix the second base position his options are limited. The most likely targets would be players who have been ousted on their teams by upcoming rookies, such as Adam Kennedy or Jack Wilson.

Should pitching be the area that Dombrowski choose to work on the Tigers could go after Wandy Rodriguez, Jason Vargas, Erik Bedard or Jeremy Guthrie. Rumors also have Detroit attempting to secure a trade with the Dodgers for Hiroki Kuroda. If the Tigers would rather stay in house to attempt to fix their pitching woes they may choose to call up Jacob Turner from AA-Erie.

At the break, the Tigers are in first place, and that is a good thing, but they are far from being playoff bound. This team has many holes that need filling and is consistently under performing on the field. However, with the American League Central being as weak as it is this season should a few key players step up or the Tigers make a few moves at the deadline this club could find itself as AL Central Champions.

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