National League Postseason Predictions

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

The second part of the predictions for the 2012 MLB postseason, this time - the National League.

National League - East

Philadelphia Phillies

The Phillies have been beasts of the east for years now and that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon. Yes, the injury to Ryan Howard is concerning for the Phils but he shouldn't be out more than half the season and when he comes back he should resume being his usual self and driving the Phillies to the postseason. 

Throughout the last season the Phillies struggled when it came to the late innings and they were hard pressed to find a reliable closer to give the ball to in the ninth inning. They fixed that situation when they went out and snatched Jonathan Papelbon away from the Boston Red Sox in the off season. Philadelphia also brought back Cole Hamels on a one-year deal and signed Juan Pierre to a one-year contract.

The Phillies made an uncharacteristically early exit from the postseason last year and have added players that they think will make up for the deficiencies they believed they spotted in last years squad. Jim Thome is coming to town and they signed Jimmy Rollins to a three year deal that will help solidify their infield for some time.

While they parted ways with Roy Oswalt the Phillies are still the best team in the East. Atlanta has improved this off season and will challenge the Phillies all season. The Nationals have assembled a solid pitching staff and has promising rookies, but they won't have enough this season to challenge. The Mets are well...the Mets. Miami has shelled out millions for their club and are taking an all in approach this year and it will work as they will compete with the Braves and Phillies all season.

National League - Central

St. Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals won it all last season but to many fans they lost it all in the off season when Albert Pujols picked up and headed to the West Coast and Anaheim. They retain most of their team from last season and even get a boost to the pitching staff with the return of Adam Wainwright.

Despite the loss of Pujols the Red Birds still boast a combination of Matt Holiday, Lance Berkman and Hunter Pence. They can still hit and they certainly can still pitch, which means that in the weak Central Division the Cardinals will run away with the championship. St. Louis agreed to terms with most of their young pitching staff and agreed to a six-year contract with catcher Yadier Molina.

The Cubs are fully invested in their rebuild and won't come close to the first spot in the division. The loss of Prince Fielder will effect the Brewers but they will still pull some games out and finish second in the Central. Cincinnati always seems to find a way to under perform when they have solid teams, but this year they don't have the best team they've had in a while which means they won't get to the post season in Cincy. The Pirates are still the Pirates and despite a run they had last year there's not too much going on in Pittsburgh besides waiting for Steelers season. In their last season in the National League the Astros will go out with a whimper and battle the Cubs for last place.

National League - West

Arizona Diamondbacks

This one was difficult, not in the "they're all so good I can't make up my mind" kind of way but a "do one of these teams actually have to make the playoffs?" The Diamondbacks came out of virtually nowhere last season to take the West and make a brief run in the playoffs. Much of their success can be attributed to the coaching style of Kirk Gibson.

Gibson had his team playing like they wanted to win every game and it worked. The Dbacks brought in Jason Kubel to help with the offensive problems they experienced last year. Aside from that, Arizona stood pretty much pat, content to enter 2012 with the same team that took them to the playoffs last year.

With the pitching leadership of Ian Kennedy the Diamondbacks should have no trouble winning the West. The struggles that plagued San Francisco last season show no real signs of improvement, there is still a lack of offense by the bay. The Dodgers are undergoing a bankruptcy and the identity of who is writing checks when the team is bankrupt confuses me. San Diego has improved and has one of the best farm systems in the game, look for the Padres to be good out west in a few years. The Rockies added a few pieces but nothing that would vault them into the playoffs.

Wildcards

Atlanta Braves

Atlanta will compete with the Phillies throughout the season but end up falling just short, placing them in the play-in game in the postseason. They took a short term approach to many of their players, offering most of their eligible players one-year deals. Their offense is a bit of a problem with Chipper Jones aging and becoming more injury prone. Jason Heyward has trailed off in the last year and may or may not have what it takes to maintain his production year-long.







Miami Marlins

The expenditures in Miami will work out well for them and they will be playing Oct. baseball in the new Marlins Park. With the signings of Jose Reyes, Heath Bell, Mark Buehrle and manager Ozzie Guillen the Marlins will finally have what it takes to make it back to post season baseball. As long as the frustrations of Hanley Ramirez don't effect his play this team has all the makings of a contender. They can pitch, the can hit and they can run.   
 

Off Season Moves the Tigers Need to Make

First off, it's been a while since the last post, I hope many of you return and start reading this again on a regular basis because I plan on updating it regularly once again. Thanks to everyone for reading.

Detroit nearly hobbled its way into the World Series in 2011 and despite coming up short of the ultimate goal, the team still finished as one of the last four playing and came within one game of representing the American League for the second time in five seasons.

2011 was a year that provided many insights into this team; Alex Avila became cemented as the No. 1 catcher for the foreseeable future, Doug Fister will push Justin Verlander to be even better than he currently is, and Delmon Young, while expendable, is a power outfielder who comes up huge in the clutch.

Last season also showed the many weaknesses the Tigers have, and other teams exploited those weaknesses to get by them in the playoffs. Once Victor Martinez came up lame in a game he was never able to back up Avila, which led to Avila catching all but two games down the stretch. That over use wore down the young backstop to the point where he resembled Kirk Gibson limping around the bases. The Tigers needed to find a back up catcher for Avila, and they found that in ex-Tiger Gerald Laird.

While not a fan favorite, Laird has proven that he is one of the most efficient defensive catchers in the game. His bat may be the equal to that of Brandon Inge but as long as he stays healthy enough to catch every fifth game and can help to mentor Avila, that's all the Tigers are looking for. This pick up was a good one by the Tigers.

The two remaining glaring holes for Detroit are at third and second base. While Inge is under contract for another season, it won't take long for the Tigers to grow tired of his inability to hit anything resembling a baseball. And after his tirade against the fans last season, his popularity in Detroit is wavering and won't withstand another season from hell like 2011. 

The 2012 free agent class for third basemen isn't exactly chock-full of star athletes; while Wilson Betemit served the Tigers well down the stretch he is not an everyday player and the Tigers brass seems to see things that way as well. Betemit has not been offered a contract for next season, which is the best thing for the team.

Notable free agents that would fit well with the Tigers would be either Jorge Cantu or Kevin Kouzmanoff. Through eight seasons Cantu has a career batting average of .271 and an on-base percentage of .316. Cantu is a good fit with Detroit because he is a utility player who specializes at third base, but has the ability to play either second or first as well. He has struggled to remain healthy and his numbers have slipped recently, but because of that his asking price could be driven down quite a bit from his hay-day in Miami.

Kevin Kouzmanoff is available for arbitration for the next two seasons so if the Rockies see what others see in him then the Tigers won't be able to snag him until he's a free agent until 2014. Kouzmanoff has a career batting average of .255 and a .300 on-base percentage. And he boasted a .713 OPS while playing over 100 games in the expanses of Coors Field.

The Tigers should pursue either of these third basemen diligently as either would bring a solid defensive front to the hot-corner as well as a powerful bat to the line-up.

Second base has become a glaring hole for Detroit, with the position being a platoon for the entire 2011 season, with six players taking the position in the field. Ramon Santiago, Ryan Raburn, Will Rhymes, Scott Sizemore, Danny Worth and Carlos Guillen all played second last year.

With a revolving door at second, Detroit has no true prospects or options at second base. Once again, the free agent class of second base is quite barren. After the Diamondbacks snapped up Aaron Hill to a new contract the only appealing player on the market is Kelly Johnson, but a contract with him would require the Tigers to send a first-round draft pick to Toronto in return.

Recent rumors have the Tigers trading Delmon Young to Atlanta in return for Martin Prado. This deal would incredibly bolster Detroit and add a powerful, consistent lead-off hitter to the line-up. Prado is a career .293 hitter in his six seasons in the majors with a .341 OBP. He has had experience and success being a lead-off hitter for the Braves and would be able to relieve some pressure from Austin Jackson in that role.

Should the Tigers complete this trade they would need to fill the vacancy left in left field by Young, and the solution is sitting in the free agent pool waiting to be snatched up. Coco Crisp, traditionally a center fielder, is available and would thrive in the vast left field of Comerica Park.

Detroit has long needed to build a team to fit Comerica Park and the addition of Crisp would do just that. Having two center fielders would save the Tigers multiple runs that they would have lost if Young would have continued to play. Crisp has a .271 career batting average and a .330 OBP, not to mention he can bring speed to the basepaths in Detroit. In 2011 he swiped 49 bases for the Athletics and with that speed and clear skill he can teach Jackson how to improve on the paths. 

The off-season is still young and there are still plenty of moves to be made, but the Tigers must address the weaknesses that showed through at the end of the 2011 season. If they do that successfully, they will be back in the playoffs and will be representing the American League in the World Series in 2012.

Baseball Needs Replay...Now

Tuesday night's Pirates vs. Braves game was a long one to say the least, the game went on for more than six hours, but it was the last few minutes that everyone will be talking about.

On a fly-out the Braves sent the runner from third base to try to score and break the tie in the bottom of the 19th inning; the throw from Pirates third baseman Pedro Alvarez was strong and on target, beating the runner home by a wide margin and the tag was made...or was it?

Home plate umpire Jerry Meals called the runner safe, saying that he believed that Julio Lugo was able to avoid the swipe tag by Pirate catcher Michael McKenry.

“I saw the tag, but he looked like he oléd him and I called him safe for that.  I looked at the replays and it appeared he might have got him on the shin area.  I’m guessing he might have got him, but when I was out there when it happened I didn’t see a tag.

“I just saw the glove sweep up. I didn’t see the glove hit his leg.”

Pirates manager Clint Hurdle exploded from the dugout and immediate started berating Meals for his call. From several replays from different angles it appears that Hurdle had an argument; the throw clearly beats Lugo to the plate and it appears as though McKenry is able to swipe Lugo's leg well before he reaches the plate. 

Lugo tells the story differently however, saying simply, "I didn't feel a tag." Despite his comments after the game his reaction immediately following the play show that he assumed he was out, but Lugo has been around long enough to know that you back the umpire when he makes a call in your favor.

ESPN's Buster Olney tweeted after the play, "If there was ever an argument for five-man umpiring crews--with one in the booth, overseeing replay to correct mistakes-- it was just made."

Olney has a point, with all the cameras that are scattered around the ball park this call would have been easy to take to the replay booth and make sure that they got it right, but baseball refuses to take the step into the 21st century.

It wouldn't take much to have a fifth umpire in a replay booth in the press box reviewing all close plays in order to assure everyone involved that the calls that were being made on the field were the correct calls. Having the extra umpire would eliminate delays that are common now when the umpires have to review home run calls, because he would have it streaming in front of him and would be able to call down to the field and quickly change a call.

On Wednesday the Pittsburgh Pirates president Frank Coonelly issued a statement regarding the call made by Meals.

"The Pittsburh Pirate organization is extremely disappointed by the way its 19-inning game against the Atlanta Braves ended earlier this morning. The game of baseball and this game in particular, filled with superlative performances by players on both clubs, deserved much better.

"While we cannot begin to understand how umpire Jerry Meals did not see the tag made by Michael McKenry three feet in front of home plate, we do not question the integrity of Mr. Meals. Instead, we know that Mr. Meals' intention was to get the call right. Jerry Meals has been umpiring Major League games for 14 years and has always done so with integrity and professionalism. He got this one wrong."

The Pirates needed this game against the Braves as they are in the hunt for the playoffs for the first time in 19 years and they need every win they can get in the closely fought National League Central where they are tied with the Milwaukee Brewers and the St. Louis Cardinals. The last thing that Pittsburgh needed was to lose a close game in extra innings, let alone on a blown call. 

After the Pirates filed their complaint with Major League Baseball, Joe Torre the executive vice president of baseball operations for the MLB released a statement on the call and its subsequent impact.

"Unfortunately, it appears that the call was missed, as Jerry Meals acknowledged after the game. Many swipe tags are not applied to the runner with solid contact, but the tag was applied and the game should have remained tied. I have spoken with Jerry, who is a hard-working, respected umpire, and no one feels worse than him. We know that this is not a product of a lack of effort.

"Having been the beneficiary of calls like this and having been on the other end in my experience as a player and as a manager, I have felt that this has always been a part of our game. As a member of the Commissioner's Special Committee for On-Field Matters, I have heard many discussions on umpiring and technology over the past two years, including both the pros and the cons of expanding replay. However, most in the game recognize that the human element always will be part of baseball and instant replay can never replace all judgment calls by umpires. Obviously, a play like this is going to spark a lot of conversation, and we will continue to consider all viewpoints in our ongoing discussions regarding officiating in baseball."

Although many may agree with Torre on replay, some will continue to call for replay on all plays, but the human element does indeed have a place in baseball. While the addition of a fifth umpire to the officiating crews to handle replays would greatly benefit the game, he should not make a call on every play in the field. While he may review each play made a change should only be made if a manager issues a challenge of an umpire's call.

Similar to the NFL the challenge system in the MLB should be limited to prevent abuse by the managers, limiting each team to only one challenge a game should help to clean up any mistakes made in the field while maintaining the feel of the game. That being said, something does need to change and baseball does need to embrace replay for the improvement of the game.