Friday, September 21, 2012

The Detroit Tigers need to clean house






By Sean Gagnier

In light of Francona's hiring by the Cleveland Indians, it would be the right move for Detroit to hire Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim pitching coach Mike Butcher as the next manager.

Mike Illich is a fiercely loyal man, it is evident in the way that he treats members of the two sports teams that he owns. He knows family comes first and he will go out of his way to make sure everyone is in the best place, but it might be time for him to change his tune.

Indictment of Dave Dombrowski

Last season general manager Dave Dombrowski signed a four-year contract extension with the Tigers through the 2015 season. That however, may have been a bit premature.

It is known that the Prince Fielder trade reeks of Illich, meaning that he was tired of Dombrowski not pulling the trigger and did so himself. That was the first indication that things may be amiss in Tigertown. Dombrowksi told Tigers fans during Tiger Fest that he and the team were not pursuing Fielder and that he would not be a good fit for the club. Needless to say, Dombrowski was probably just as surprised as the rest of the baseball world when Fielder signed.

With the addition of Fielder to a club that was largely intact after a American League Championship Series run the year prior, expectations were high for Dombrowski and the Tigers, but they never got the ball rolling. Instead of running away with the division, they struggled to sustain win streaks and trailed the Chicago White Sox most of the season. With a little less than two weeks remaining in the 2012 season the Tigers trailed the White Sox in the Central Division by two games and the Wild Card by four games.

2012 was supposed to be a cakewalk for Detroit, it was anything but. The team that Dombrowski fielded struggled and was never able to get things together on both sides of the ball at the same time. Despite Illich's vote of confidence for Dombrowski in 2011 with his contact extension, the Tigers struggles could be grounds for early termination.

It took Dombrowski until August of the 2012 season to realize that he didn't have a second baseman on the roster, and when he did make a trade at the deadline he acquired yet another right-handed pitcher and regained Omar Infante while giving up two of the three remaining bright lights in the Detroit farm system.

With the Tigers farm system consisting almost entirely of Nick Castellanos, Dombrowski is mismanaging that as well. Castellanos has long been a third baseman, where his arm and bat are both a plus, but Dombrowski has shifted him to the outfield where his bat, arm and defensive ability are no longer a plus. Instead of shifting Castellanos to one of the middle infield positions where his major league club struggles, Dombrowski insists on creating yet another young outfielder for Detroit.

Mismanagement of the farm system and overall incompetence should cost Dombrowski his job, it is simply a matter of if Mr. Illich can see just how far Dombrowski has driven this club into the ground.

The Old Man

It is not a lack of respect that requires manager Jim Leyland leave this team, it is his overall failings this season. Leyland insisted on playing a rotation of Brandon Inge, Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth at second base, even admitting to mishandling Inge before doing the same thing with Raburn.

Countless failed roster lineups and explanations of those lineups that are beyond convoluted. When a player, Raburn, is hitting .160, it doesn't matter where he is playing or what he has done there in the past, he won't hit.

Aside from lineups, is Leyland's complete misuse of the Tigers bullpen throughout the season. Relievers are brought into games when they are not needed and Leyland has bought wholeheartedly into his friend, Tony La Russa's system of using pitchers for single outs and matchups. This piecemeal approach to relievers is outdated and damaging to the team. When your starter is still going strong or the reliever on the mound has struck out his last two batters, why take them out for the lefty reliever other than because of "the system?"

Perhaps it is his advanced age, but Leyland has a nasty habit of leaving some relievers in games much longer than any sane person should. It is one thing to leave a reliever on the mound who is hot, it is another entirely to leave a pitcher on the mound who is in the process of imploding. Take the Tigers early season collapse against the Seattle Mariners, Octavio Dotel couldn't find the plate and everyone except for Leyland apparently could see that. But Leyland allowed the game to get out of hand before he even placed a call to the bullpen.

The man knows baseball, but he seems to have lost a step and his mojo this season and for that he needs to get the boot after his contract expires after this season in order for this Tigers team to perform to it's potential.

The Replacements

With both Dombrowski and Leyland needing to be shown the door, there will need to be two new faces in Detroit. Personally, there is an affinity for the philosophy of Billy Beane, it's working in Oakland right now, and with the lack of talent in the farm system it is that philosophy that could save this club.

Billy Beane isn't leaving Oakland and Theo Epstein is comfortable in Chicago, but there is another. He currently works as the special assistant to New York Mets general manager Sandy Alderson and has eight years of general manager experience, his name is J.P. Ricciardi.

Ricciardi has bought into the "moneyball" philosophy and had his Toronto Blue Jays competing in the American League East each season, not finishing as high as he would have liked, but each Blue Jays team would have fared well in the much weaker American League Central.

If Ricciardi could come into the Tigers organization and add some young, cheap talent then he would be worlds better than Dombrowski ever was and could have the Tigers on the road to actually winning something.

Of course a general manager with no manager isn't likely to win many games, so Detroit must look to add someone who is different than Leyland, someone who understands how to use pitchers and how to set lineups. It appears that there could be quite a few openings for major league managing positions, but there is one name that has been thrown around Tigertown that could really shake things up, Terry Francona.

Francona has two World Series rings from the Boston Red Sox and understands how to run a club filled with big names and big contracts. Experience aside, Francona has had some history with the Tigers, serving as a coach in the past and even throwing batting practice to a young Prince Fielder at Tiger Stadium.

He has said that he would consider coaching again if the right job presented itself, and what better option could there be than a former club with three superstars and a legitimate shot at a World Series title in a town that loves the game? Let Tito watch begin.     

Tuesday, August 21, 2012

What Should the Tigers 2013 Bullpen Look Like?


By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It's clear that the bullpen has struggled at time for the Detroit Tigers this season. When the bats are hot the pen is cold, very rarely do the two ever sync up to provide Jim Leyland with a complete team effort. With so many relievers struggling this season, there appears as though there will be quite the turnover next season in the Tigers bullpen. Here's what I would like to see out beyond the left field wall.

First off, lose Jose Valverde. Yes, it was impossible for him to repeat his performance from the 2011 campaign in which he converted 49 of 49 save opportunities. He also appeared in a career-high 75 games in 2011, but things haven't been as smooth this season.

In 2011, Valverde sported a 2.24 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP, but in 2012 those numbers have ballooned to 3.62 and 1.228 respectively, not exactly closer caliber numbers. He has turned in an admirable season though, but it won't be enough to live up to the surely high salary that he will demand when he becomes a free agent after this year.

There are too many young arms in this organization to throw money away on someone who gets their nickname from a spud.

Octavio Dotel has a club option on his contract and given his performance in this campaign they will likely pick it up to bring him back into the bullpen for another season. A good move on their part. Dotel consistently gives the Tigers solid innings when they call on him, as with any reliever his ERA is a bit elevated at 2.95 but his 0.914 WHIP much more indicative of how well he is performing this year.

Retaining Dotel in the bullpen would be a good move for Detroit and they will most likely do just that.

The number of current bullpen members that should be in the 2013 pen should be small, they have not proven that they are quality relievers and should not be trusted in tight situations.

With Dotel returning, Detroit needs to return Duane Below to the bullpen and keep him their as their long reliever. Below has not been as consistent as he was last season, but he gives the Tigers innings out of the pen, and they happen to be from a lefty, something that is rare on this team.

In 2012, Below has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, not the greatest numbers but his K/9 and SO/BB ratios remain good enough to anoint him as the long reliever to come out of the Tigers bullpen. He has a 5.6 K/9 and a 3.63 SO/BB ratio, both of which are evident of a solid long relief man.

Phil Coke has also drawn the ire of Tigers fans several times this season, but he has shown that when he is on, he can be a great situational lefty Detroit can run out in the later innings. His 3.78 ERA and 1.615 WHIP are scary high, but he has had a few outings in which he has imploded which has elevated his numbers as a whole.

 If Coke can regain his early season form he will become a valuable part of this Tigers bullpen in 2013. He continues to be under Detroit's control until 2015, so he will continue to be a familiar face in the pen, although not necessarily a bad one.

Joaquin Benoit should be the last member of this season's bullpen to keep their job in 2013. While it appears to many that Benoit is having a terrible season, he is in fact having a very good statistical year. With a 1.074 WHIP and 3.33 ERA Benoit is more often than not going out and giving the Tigers solid innings late in games.

Being under team control until 2014, Benoit will definitely return to the bullpen in 2013 but given his numbers are remarkably similar to what they were in 2011, he appears to be a consistent pitcher who will be good to have in the bullpen for another season.

To those returning four pitchers there must be three new faces, some more familiar than others.

The first player that must be in the bullpen is Brayan Villarreal, granted he is currently in the bullpen but given his supposed arm troubles he may not stay there for the remainder of the year. Villarreal gave the Tigers consistently good innings, even leading some to call for him to take Valverde's closer role, but then he had a bad weekend and complained of arm weakness, even though the doctor he was sent to see found no injury.

Statistically speaking, Villarreal is having a great season. Much like Benoit, despite the numbers being in his favor the fans aren't. He has a 2.29 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP, both evident of a strong pitcher who consistently has control of his pitches when he takes the mound.

The next is Bruce Rondon. Fans may have heard a lot about Rondon and his blazing fastball, but many don't know much more than that. During 2012, Rondon has advanced from Single-A Lakeland all the way to Triple-A Toledo and has a combined 1.31 ERA and 1.042 WHIP. Staggering numbers for a 22-year old.

He will need more time in Toledo before he is considered for the Tigers, but he will undoubtedly get an invite to spring training and if he has mastered a few off-speed pitches to keep batters from sitting on his fastball, then he needs to be in the Detroit bullpen. Having an Aroldis Chapman type player in the bullpen is like having a secret weapon that can be brought out at any time and end a threat.

There still would be the question of who fills the closer role left vacant by Valverde, and there is a simple fix for that, the man who nearly won rookie of the year last season and has a devastating change-up, Mr. Al Alburquerque.  

Alburquerque is currently on a rehab assignment with the Lakeland Flying Tigers and Toledo Mud Hens; in his nine total innings pitched he has combined for a 4.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. Not exactly the numbers you want to see from a future closer. But he is incredibly rusty, having not played in a game since he was struck in the head by a fly ball during batting practice in Baltimore in 2011.

Once Alburquerque can shake off the rust and get his pitches working again he should regain his form and be able to return to the Detroit bullpen. When he was healthy, Alburquerque could throw his change-up to batters even when they knew it was coming and still beat them with it. Add that to a solid fastball and another pitch that he was working on prior to his injury and you have yourself a very good, very cheap new closer.

In all the Detroit Tigers 2013 bullpen needs to look like this in order for them to have any hope of success;
RHP: Octavio Dotel, Brayan Villarreal, Joaquin Benoit, Bruce Rondon, Al Alburquerque
LHP: Duane Below, Phil Coke.