Detroit Tigers Will Have Work Cut Out for Them in Arbitration

By Sean Gagnier
It may be early, the Tigers aren't dead yet in the World Series, but looking at a 3-0 series deficit, it couldn't hurt to look to the 2013 season.

First off, the Tigers already high payroll could get much higher next season, with nine players eligible for salary arbitration.

Arbitration Eligible Tigers
Includes player's 2012 salary

• Max Scherzer, $3.75 million
• Rick Porcello, $3.1 million
• Ryan Raburn, $2.1 million
• Phil Coke, $1.1 million
• Don Kelly, $900,000
• Alex Avila, $510,000
• Doug Fister, $507,500
• Brennan Boesch, $502,500
• Austin Jackson, $500,000

Most of the eligible players are well deserving of a pay raise, but there are several that the Tigers should be kicking to the curb quickly following the World Series.

Of the nine players eligible for arbitration, Raburn does not deserve a pay raise at all, in fact he probably should have to pay Mike Illich for being as bad as he is. No chance he is back with the team next season.

With Detroit likely picking up the $6 million option on Jhonny Peralta, they will have no need for Kelly and will likely cut him.

Boesch more than likely has seen his last game in a Tigers uniform. He did not follow up his good 2011 season with a equally impressive 2012 season, and has been left off all three Tigers postseason rosters. If that isn't a sign that Detroit is ready to part ways with Boesch, then nothing is. Not to mention the glut of outfielders the Tigers have right now.

Scherzer will see yet another big pay raise; last season Scherzer saw his salary grow from $600,000 to $3.75 million. If things hold like they did last season, Scherzer could be bringing in quite a bit more money next year.

Like Scherzer, the other Tigers eligible for arbitration, aside from Raburn, Boesch and Kelly, will all likely see a bump in pay and return to the club next season without any incidences.

With Raburn, Boesch and Kelly being shown the door, Detroit will add to it's payroll without adding a single player. That doesn't bode well for being active with free agents.
 
Savings: $3.5 million


 Free Agent Tigers

• Jose Valverde, $9 million
• Delmon Young, $6.75 million
• Gerald Laird, $1 million
• Anibal Sanchez, $8 million

First off, Valverde will never play for the Tigers again. Even before his garbage postseason, he signed with agent Scott Boras, one of the two agents who drive up player contracts to ridiculous sums. Then Valverde tried to blow the Tigers postseason twice in the American division and league championship series. and for some reason Leyland decided to waste a bullpen spot with his arm in the World Series.

Valverde will be on the first plane out of Detroit in the off-season and will never come back. 

Delmon Young may have been named the ALCS MVP, but that doesn't make up for a horrible regular season and his bat, when hot, in no way comes close to making up for his defense in left field, if you can even call it that. Young's -29 RAA is one of the lowest in the entire league, meaning that when he plays left field, Young gives up 29 more runs than an average player. And even his bat doesn't save him, Young boasted a -9Rbat, runs batted in by position. So not only can he not field, he can't hit. Wave g'bye to Young this off-season.

Laird has struggled in the postseason offensively, and didn't have the best year at the plate during the regular season, but he has served as a solid backup for Alex Avila all year. With Victor Martinez returning next season, the Tigers would have three catchers on the roster, but it also depends on how they plan to use Martinez.

The only problem with using Martinez, Laird and Avila, is that Martinez is owed $13 million next season. While that is quite a hefty sum, if he can produce with RISP like he did in 2011 then he will be worth every penny.

That being said, we would prefer to see Martinez used as the DH on a daily basis next season and see Laird return at $1 million or a little more. Martinez is too valuable to this team to put him behind the plate and risk him getting hurt or wearing out what little is left of his knees. By resigning Laird, all three catchers could work with the pitching staff and if absolutely necessary Martinez could serve as the emergency catcher. Laird works well with Scherzer and Porcello, while Avila tends to work better with Verlander and Fister. Why break up the band now?

While Sanchez has yet to see any bump in run support moving from Miami to Detroit, he appears to like the club and the fans, but it has yet to be seen if that will turn into him resigning with the Tigers. With Detroit cutting ties to Valverde, Boesch and Young, there should be enough money to offer Sanchez a competitive deal to keep him in Motown.

He may not have had the best first few outings for Detroit, but Sanchez has shown that he is as capable a pitcher as any of the other guys on the staff. Sanchez will receive contracts worth absurd money, no doubt, but the Tigers will likely offer him something in the neighborhood of $9-10 million per season.

Savings: $15.75 million 

Total Savings: $19.25 million

What about the 'pen?

Phil Coke has shown that he is capable of handling the closers role in the postseason, why not keep him in that role? With Coke serving as the closer, the 7th and 8th inning roles could be left up to Octavio Dotel and Joaquin Benoit.

Moving Coke to the closer, leaves the Tigers in need of a situational lefty, which could be filled by Darin Downs. Continuing to use Al Albuquerque in tight situations would be a solid move and so would be moving Bruce Rondon up from the Toledo Mud Hens and into the Tigers bullpen.

Detroit made a good run in 2011, but was hampered by injuries. In 2012, an American League Championship is nothing to sneeze at, but the Tigers have no one to blame but themselves for under-performing in the World Series. If Detroit wants to stay at the top of the AL for a long time, they need to reward success while promoting young cheap talent from within.

What Should the Tigers 2013 Bullpen Look Like?

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It's clear that the bullpen has struggled at time for the Detroit Tigers this season. When the bats are hot the pen is cold, very rarely do the two ever sync up to provide Jim Leyland with a complete team effort. With so many relievers struggling this season, there appears as though there will be quite the turnover next season in the Tigers bullpen. Here's what I would like to see out beyond the left field wall.

First off, lose Jose Valverde. Yes, it was impossible for him to repeat his performance from the 2011 campaign in which he converted 49 of 49 save opportunities. He also appeared in a career-high 75 games in 2011, but things haven't been as smooth this season.

In 2011, Valverde sported a 2.24 ERA and a 1.189 WHIP, but in 2012 those numbers have ballooned to 3.62 and 1.228 respectively, not exactly closer caliber numbers. He has turned in an admirable season though, but it won't be enough to live up to the surely high salary that he will demand when he becomes a free agent after this year.

There are too many young arms in this organization to throw money away on someone who gets their nickname from a spud.

Octavio Dotel has a club option on his contract and given his performance in this campaign they will likely pick it up to bring him back into the bullpen for another season. A good move on their part. Dotel consistently gives the Tigers solid innings when they call on him, as with any reliever his ERA is a bit elevated at 2.95 but his 0.914 WHIP much more indicative of how well he is performing this year.

Retaining Dotel in the bullpen would be a good move for Detroit and they will most likely do just that.

The number of current bullpen members that should be in the 2013 pen should be small, they have not proven that they are quality relievers and should not be trusted in tight situations.

With Dotel returning, Detroit needs to return Duane Below to the bullpen and keep him their as their long reliever. Below has not been as consistent as he was last season, but he gives the Tigers innings out of the pen, and they happen to be from a lefty, something that is rare on this team.

In 2012, Below has a 3.38 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, not the greatest numbers but his K/9 and SO/BB ratios remain good enough to anoint him as the long reliever to come out of the Tigers bullpen. He has a 5.6 K/9 and a 3.63 SO/BB ratio, both of which are evident of a solid long relief man.

Phil Coke has also drawn the ire of Tigers fans several times this season, but he has shown that when he is on, he can be a great situational lefty Detroit can run out in the later innings. His 3.78 ERA and 1.615 WHIP are scary high, but he has had a few outings in which he has imploded which has elevated his numbers as a whole.

 If Coke can regain his early season form he will become a valuable part of this Tigers bullpen in 2013. He continues to be under Detroit's control until 2015, so he will continue to be a familiar face in the pen, although not necessarily a bad one.

Joaquin Benoit should be the last member of this season's bullpen to keep their job in 2013. While it appears to many that Benoit is having a terrible season, he is in fact having a very good statistical year. With a 1.074 WHIP and 3.33 ERA Benoit is more often than not going out and giving the Tigers solid innings late in games.

Being under team control until 2014, Benoit will definitely return to the bullpen in 2013 but given his numbers are remarkably similar to what they were in 2011, he appears to be a consistent pitcher who will be good to have in the bullpen for another season.

To those returning four pitchers there must be three new faces, some more familiar than others.

The first player that must be in the bullpen is Brayan Villarreal, granted he is currently in the bullpen but given his supposed arm troubles he may not stay there for the remainder of the year. Villarreal gave the Tigers consistently good innings, even leading some to call for him to take Valverde's closer role, but then he had a bad weekend and complained of arm weakness, even though the doctor he was sent to see found no injury.

Statistically speaking, Villarreal is having a great season. Much like Benoit, despite the numbers being in his favor the fans aren't. He has a 2.29 ERA and a 1.169 WHIP, both evident of a strong pitcher who consistently has control of his pitches when he takes the mound.

The next is Bruce Rondon. Fans may have heard a lot about Rondon and his blazing fastball, but many don't know much more than that. During 2012, Rondon has advanced from Single-A Lakeland all the way to Triple-A Toledo and has a combined 1.31 ERA and 1.042 WHIP. Staggering numbers for a 22-year old.

He will need more time in Toledo before he is considered for the Tigers, but he will undoubtedly get an invite to spring training and if he has mastered a few off-speed pitches to keep batters from sitting on his fastball, then he needs to be in the Detroit bullpen. Having an Aroldis Chapman type player in the bullpen is like having a secret weapon that can be brought out at any time and end a threat.

There still would be the question of who fills the closer role left vacant by Valverde, and there is a simple fix for that, the man who nearly won rookie of the year last season and has a devastating change-up, Mr. Al Alburquerque.  

Alburquerque is currently on a rehab assignment with the Lakeland Flying Tigers and Toledo Mud Hens; in his nine total innings pitched he has combined for a 4.00 ERA and 1.667 WHIP. Not exactly the numbers you want to see from a future closer. But he is incredibly rusty, having not played in a game since he was struck in the head by a fly ball during batting practice in Baltimore in 2011.

Once Alburquerque can shake off the rust and get his pitches working again he should regain his form and be able to return to the Detroit bullpen. When he was healthy, Alburquerque could throw his change-up to batters even when they knew it was coming and still beat them with it. Add that to a solid fastball and another pitch that he was working on prior to his injury and you have yourself a very good, very cheap new closer.

In all the Detroit Tigers 2013 bullpen needs to look like this in order for them to have any hope of success;
RHP: Octavio Dotel, Brayan Villarreal, Joaquin Benoit, Bruce Rondon, Al Alburquerque
LHP: Duane Below, Phil Coke.

Weekly Tigers Fan Card Revoking

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

This is going to be something new; every week I will post something dumb a fan has said or done that proves that they deserve to have their Detroit Tigers Fan Club card revoked - temporarily or permanently.

First up - Random 97.1 The Ticket caller

After the Tigers loss on Saturday where Jose Valverde blew the save, his second of the season, 97.1 opened up their phone lines to people who wanted to talk about it. And of course, instead of some one getting on the air and showing that they understand the game of baseball this guy got on.

His suggestion; call up the New York Yankees and package Ryan Raburn with Jose Valverde to get Curtis Granderson back.

Sure, the team with the most championships in Major League Baseball is going to trade one of their best outfielders for a guy who isn't hitting his weight at the plate and a closer who is shaky at the moment. Yeah, that'll happen.

Not to mention the Tigers would have no room for Granderson in their already filled outfield or that the Yankees already have Robinson Cano at second base and have no need for Raburn. While he was at it, the caller suggested that the Tigers throw in Don Kelly in order to get Cano away from the Yankees.

I'm not even going to try to evaluate this one, this guy has no baseball sense whatsoever. When will fans learn that trades have to hurt both ways - you can't get one of the other guy's best players without giving up someone of value.

About your fan card random 97.1 caller...it's just been revoked.

What's Wrong With Jose Valverde?

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

Jose Valverde blew his second save of the season on Saturday afternoon when he allowed a two-run home run to the White Sox' Adam Dunn that put the Sox ahead 3-2 in the ninth inning. The Tigers had not trailed all day, after scoring two in the second inning and taking a 2-1 lead into the ninth inning.

In 2011, Valverde was perfect in save situations, leading the Tigers to pick up his club option for the 2012 season. They expected him to continue his perfect ways this season, but that has not been the case. He has looked shaky in almost all of his outings this season and has blown two saves while winning two games so for this year.

When your closer has two wins in the first week of May, things are not good. It shows signs that the closer isn't on top of his game and has to rely on ninth inning heroics to propel the team to the victory instead of counting on the arm of the man put out there to secure the win.

Because ERA's and closers don't usually agree due to the low number of innings they pitch a look at the WHIP is more showing of how they are throwing. Valverde has a 1.78 WHIP, meaning that for every inning that he pitches, he is allowing almost two base runners. That is not a good number to have.

An even more telling statistic of how off Valverde has been this season is is H/9, which is a measure of the number of hits given up per nine innings of work. Valverde is allowing 10.1 hits per nine innings, which is well off of his career average of 6.8 H/9.

His BB/9 and SO/9 have both also seen drastic changes over the past year, in 2011 Valverde's BB/9 was 4.2 but that has ballooned to 5.9 in 2012. Meaning that per every nine innings pitched Valverde is walking nearly six batters, up nearly two from last season. Over the same period, Valverde has seen his SO/9 drop from 8.6 in 2011 to 5.9 in 2012. While he is walking two more batters a game, he is also striking out about 1.5 less batters per nine innings.

While these numbers do not justify relieving Valverde of the closers role at this time, they do indicate that he should be watched carefully over his next several outings in order to try to identify what is going wrong with the usually perfect Papa Grande. 

Tigers Bullpen Will Cost Them Games

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It's now five games into the Detroit Tigers 2012 regular season and their starting rotation does not have a single win among them, all of the wins reside with bullpen pitchers - and usually because of the incompetence of pitchers in the pen.

 Detroit's bullpen is made up of; Duane Below, Octavio Dotel, Brayan Villarreal, Collin Balester, Phil Coke, Daniel Schlereth, Joaquin Benoit and Jose Valverde. Only Below, Dotel and Villarreal still have a 0.00 ERA, Villarreal only because he has tossed just 0.1 innings.

As much as Justin Verlander attempted to take the blame for the Tigers ninth inning collapse on Wednesday, the true culprits came from the pen in left field. Verlander did lose control in the ninth, he did allow an earned run and then turn over the baseball to the bullpen with the bases loaded, but the bullpen failed at it's one job - throwing strikes.

Manager Jim Leyland gave the ball to lefty "specialist" Schlereth with one out in the ninth to face a lefty at the plate. A relievers only job is to throw strikes, especially when the lead is on the line in the ninth and more than ever when the bases are loaded. Schlereth failed abysmally at his one job, walking in the only batter he was going to face and tying the game at two.

Then Valverde was called to the mound, coming off an outing where he bounced back from an opening day blown save to get the Tampa Bay Rays out in the ninth on Tuesday. However, it was not a save situation, and as many Tigers fans know, that is not the time you want Valverde anywhere near the ball. With the bases loaded Valverde surrendered a single that got through the infield and into the outfield, scoring two runs.

The Verlander's win gone and now the Tigers lead, Valverde was finally able to get the final two outs of the inning. However, Detroit was unable to claw their way back for a win against former Tiger Fernando Rodney, who retired them in order to save the game for the Rays.

This is not the first game that the bullpen has blown, and it definitely won't be the last unless something is done - and soon. On opening day; the bullpen blew Verlander's win and in the series finale with the Boston Red Sox the bullpen minimized the damage the Red Sox would do but frequently surrendered runs.

The Tigers offense is potent, but the extent to which the bullpen is leaning on them scoring runs late is inexcusable. When a pitcher is in the bullpen and the phone rings, he has one job. It's pretty easy, throw strikes. If a pitcher can't throw strikes, they shouldn't be on the team.

A look at the numbers that Detroit's bullpen has posted so far this season are quite alarming. The eight pitchers have combined for a 3.15 ERA, .316 opponent batting average, 1.36 WHIP and have surrendered 19 hits in just 15 innings pitched. Those numbers are beyond acceptable.

To have all four of your teams wins belong to the bullpen is ridiculous and to have your bullpen pitchers allowing almost one and a half walks and hits per each inning they pitch is simply baffling. How are these people still allowed near the mound? Opponents are hitting over .300 against them! Leyland would be better to simply let his starters go the full nine or give the ball to the only two relievers who haven't proved their incompetence thus far this season.

While it is early, the numbers that this bullpen is posting are very indicative of problems that will remain with them throughout the season and this bullpen will cost the Tigers game this season.

Tigers Opening Day Win Over the Red Sox Felt Different, But Is Exactly What Detroit Needed

CBS Detroit

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It had all the pomp and circumstance that an Opening Day in Detroit should have, but it seemed to have more meaning, more excitement and an epic pitching match-up. The afternoon was clear and sunny with the temperatures in the mid-50's, a far cry from the snow flurries that are the norm during Detroit opening days.

Things felt different, but no one could put a finger on it. The Tigers were coming off their first Central Division crown ever, they lost Victor Martinez but gained the instant hometown hero Prince Fielder. Detroit also added relievers in Collin Balester and Octavio Dotel. The Tigers were now the ones with the targets on their backs - the hunted and no longer the hunter, something that is entirely new.

It is accepted as all but inevitable that the Tigers will win the Central Division this season - this team just won the division for the first time ever last season and now they are the ones who will walk away with it? They are the sexy pick to win the World Series, this is not what Detroit is used to. Detroit is used to being underestimated and under appreciated.

With the national media in attendance the Tigers kicked off one of the most anticipated seasons in club history against the Boston Red Sox. Detroit sent Cy Young and MVP Justin Verlander to the mound to duel with Red Sox ace Jon Lester. The game was everything a baseball fan could want.

Verlander looked to be in mid-season form giving the Tigers eight scoreless innings while allowing just two hits and walked just one. Lester matched Verlander inning for inning until his seventh when he allowed a double to left by Jhonny Peralta and another double to left by Alex Avila that gave the Tigers a 1-0 lead.

The Tigers would add another run in the eighth inning when Austin Jackson hit a lead off triple to right center. When Brennan Boesch was unable to get him home the Red Sox intentionally walked Miguel Cabrera to try to get Fielder to ground into a double play. Fortunately for Detroit Fielder was able to shorten his swing and launch a sacrifice fly to center field. With Jackson crossing the plate the Tigers boasted a 2-0 lead going into the ninth with their closer, Jose Valverde, who was 49-for-49 last season.

Things seemed sewed up for the Tigers, it was going to be a good win. Holding the Red Sox scoreless on opening day, Verlander going eight innings and getting a rare April win and Valverde continuing his saves streak. But this is why they play the games.

 Valverde came on and seemed to struggled from the moment he got on top of the rubber. Dustin Pedroia connected with a lead off double to deep center before Adrian Gonzalez singled him over to third. Valverde was then able to get David Ortiz to fly out to center but Pedroia tagged and scored, cutting the Tigers lead to 2-1. Kevin Youkilis then struck out but a stolen base put the tying run in scoring position with two outs for the Red Sox. Ryan Sweeney then tripled to deep right and as the ball caromed off the wall, the Red Sox tied the game at two apiece.

The first blown save for Valverde since Sept. 2010, the lead gone, Verlander's win gone it seemed that things were going to collapse for the Tigers on opening day and crush all the optimism that came with it. But Detroit flexed the muscles that have had analysts glowing about them all winter.

Detroit's ninth inning rally came from the two guys who combined for the first run - Peralta singled to right and was pushed over to second on an Avila single to left. With two runners on and no outs the Red Sox turned to A. Aceves and Danny Worth came in as a pinch runner for Peralta. The bases were loaded when a breaking pitch caught the heel of Ramon Santiago.

With the bases loaded Austin Jackson stepped to the plate, he struggled last season with strikeouts and is looking for a bounce back offensive year this season. He took a couple pitches, didn't try to force anything, and was able to lace a single down the left field line that scored Worth.

That was it, that was the feeling that everyone had. This team is going to win, it might not be pretty but this team is good and it won't go down without a fight. These Tigers embody the city they are from and a walk off opening day win is just what should have happened.

If this is how opening day was, 2012 is going to be one heck of a year for the Bombers on Brush Street.