Detroit Tigers Must Hold Onto Porcello

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

It's been well documented that the Tigers are willing spend money in order to win now for their aging owner, Mike Ilitch, but when a team tries to play like the New York Yankees in the clubhouse, they lose to the Yankees on the field.


The Tigers payroll will top $156M in 2012, an unheard of figure for a mid-market team with a modest television deal. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has done his best to fill the needs of the team through trades and via free agency. While that has brought talent to the team, it has strained the pocketbook and emptied the farm system.

When the Tigers traded uber-prospect Jacob Turner and major-league-ready catcher Rob Brantly to the Miami Marlins in July for pitcher Anibal Sanchez and second-baseman Omar Infante, many said the only way the trade would be deemed palatable is if the Tigers won the World Series or resigned Sanchez.

Well, the Tigers made it to the World Series, but lost. Then Dombrowksi inked Sanchez to a five-year deal deal worth $80M, and the trade talk around the Tigers heated up. Yes, Detroit is a much better team with Sanchez on it than without him, but one cannot so easily give up on prospects.

The ink wasn't even dry on the deal Sanchez contract and there were rumors swirling as to where Detroit would be trading pitcher Rick Porcello. It was taken as a given, a throw away move on a prospect that was one of the top rated high school pitchers taken in his draft.

Porcello, who turns 24 on Dec. 27, does not have the best career numbers, but a closer look at his stats reveals that he is improving each season and could very well be better than many give him credit for.

from Baseball-Reference.com

Each year, after 2009, Porcello has shown improvement to his ERA numbers, cutting 0.33 off his career high of 4.92 in 2010. His WHIP has not been as steady, and has bounced around from season to season. In 2012, Porcello posted a WHIP of 1.53, nosing his career WHIP to 1.417.

Normally any pitcher with a WHIP north of 1.35 is not a starter, but there are other factors one must consider before relegating Porcello to the scrap heap. Porcello is a ground-ball pitcher, meaning that he is at his best when batters make contact with the ball. The style of pitching is why the WHIP of any ground-ball, contact-pitcher is notably higher than that of a power-pitcher.

Porcello has increased his ground-ball numbers and cut down on his home runs allowed each season, resulting in a career best 16 home runs allowed in 2012. The problem with Porcello is that when he is on his game, he is getting quite a few ground balls and those ground balls have to be fielded by arguably one of the worst infields in the league.

Miguel Cabrera, at third base, does an admirable job, but his range is minimal. To Cabrera's left is shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who despite an impressive postseason, only has decent range forward and not to his left or right. Omar Infante had nine errors at second base for the Tigers in only 61 games. And Prince Fielder, at first, has one of the worst ranges in the game. Meaning that if Porcello had a defense behind him, he would easily be a 20-game winner.

Now, poor infield-defense may be another reason to trade Porcello. Or, one could look at making a few roster moves in the 2013 offseason that would shore up the defense and make Porcello look a heck of a lot better each time he is on the mound.

Right now, Porcello does not have the highest trade value. Teams know that the Tigers consider him to be "surplus," so they are not willing to give up much in return. Meaning that a former first-round draft pick would have gotten Detroit Joel Hanrahan. There are reports that several teams are interested in trading for Porcello, but how many of them would give Detroit anything of use?

With the trade route being rather barren, and fairly short-sighted, the best option is for the Tigers to hold onto Porcello and roll with the punches. Porcello has shown steady improvement, and remember, this guy is 24-years old. Verlander went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA in 2008 when he was 25, so there is something to be said for letting players develop.

The argument for trading Porcello has been that with the signing of Sanchez, there is only one open spot for a starter on the team. But think to yourself, when is the last time that any team went the entire season without an injury to one of their starters? Exactly.

Detroit has six starters. That's it. Seriously, there are no others. The Tigers traded Andy Oliver and shipped Adam Wilk to Korea this offseason. Casey Crosby has shown he isn't ready to start, and Duane Below has proven that he is best out of the bullpen. So should there be an injury to one of Detroit's starters, there is no help.

What Detroit needs to do, is to just take a deep breath and hold onto their young talent. Let Porcello and Drew Smyly duke it out in spring training for the final starters slot, and reward the other with a long-relief position in the bullpen. Both Smyly and Porcello have what it takes to be a starter.

The Tigers are good with one of the two of them on the roster, and they are even better with both of them. Having both Porcello and Smyly on the active-roster allows Manager Jim Leyland some flexibility with his rotation and also provides him with a safety net should something happen to one of his pitchers.

So the Tigers should let the stove remain hot and listen to offers, but unless something comes that blows them away they would be best suited to hold onto their talent. 

Tigers Trade For Sanchez Among Dombrowski's Worst

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

Starting pitching was supposed to be the savior of this ball club; yes, Prince Fielder and Miguel Cabrera can rip the cover off the ball, but when's the last time you heard "two big hitters beat good pitching"? Fielder and Cabrera have done just that several times this season, but when it comes down to it, good, solid starting pitching is the backbone of any successful club, and this club doesn't have that.

Of the Tigers five starters only one has an ERA under 3.20, that is Justin Verlander and his ERA is 2.53. A far cry from his Cy Young numbers of last season. Detroit's WHIP numbers aren't much better, each pitcher has a 1.0+ WHIP. Verlander once again setting the pace with a 1.01 with Doug Fister, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello and Anibal Sanchez trailing in that order.

All hasn't been bad for general manager Dave Dombrowski, but his moves this season haven't clicked the same way they did last year. When Dombrowski pulled the trigger on a deal that sent two of Detroit's top prospects to Miami for a veteran starter and a second baseman, things looked good. Sanchez had a no-hitter under his belt and was receiving very little run support in Miami, reminiscent of Fister, but since he has been in Detroit his ERA is 7.97 and he sports a WHIP of 2.11. Those numbers are numbers that should be coming from a spot starter up from Double-A.

Omar Infante has stepped up and fit perfectly into the Tigers roster, giving them exactly what they needed in every aspect. With Infante, Detroit now has an every day second baseman who can actually field the position and they know what they will get from him at the plate, and that is hit around .300.

While Infante is a nice get, he was a throw in piece in the trade, meaning that Dombrowski is on the hook for how Sanchez performs more so than Infante. And from the looks of it, Dombrowski blew yet another trade for the Tigers. He traded away the Tigers top pitching prospect, a guy who will be a No. 1 starter, and a top catching prospect.

Rob Brantly, the catcher, was a bit of a trade chip to begin with. With Alex Avila having solidified himself as the starter behind the plate there is a battle for the back-up role, Gerald Laird currently fills that spot but Brantly had his eyes set on that job. But they still have James McCann to step in and fill that role.

Turner is the biggest loss and when Sanchez's time with the Tigers comes to a merciful end and he signs with another team, this trade will become one of the worst Dombrowski has ever inked. He traded two top prospects for a second baseman, that he previously traded in an equally terrible deal, and the king-of-all-dud's pitcher.

When the Tigers miss the postseason, it's on Dombrowski, but good thing he got that contract extension, because Detroit is definitely a better team with him pulling the reins. Note the sarcasm.

Tigers Farm System Ranks Near Bottom in MLB

By Sean Gagnier

ESPN's Keith Law recently ranked all of the farm systems in Major League Baseball, and the Detroit Tigers didn't fair that well. Law had the Tigers ranked as No. 24 out of the 30 teams and their farm systems; there were only two redeeming parts of the farm system that kept it from falling lower than 24th.

The Tigers, Law said, were similar to the Philadelphia Phillies farm system, but are even thinner. There are quite a few prospects at the lower levels, but trades have erased most talent in the upper levels. There is raw talent to be had in the Tigers system, but aside from two exceptions, none of it is finished or nearly finished.

Just two prospects saved Detroit's farm system from slipping even lower than it did; Nick Castellanos and Jacob Turner. Turner, 21, is ranked No. 29 among all prospects. The right-handed pitching prospect has had the uber-prospect thrown on him in the past, but several MLB outings have proved that he is in need of more time in the minor leagues.

Castellanos, 20, is ranked as the No. 37 prospect in all of the MLB. He has torn up the minors at every stop he has made in his young career, hitting over .400 in Single-A Lakeland this season and batting over .300 at Double-A Erie. Castellanos is one of the most highly regarded Tigers prospects ever, with comparisons being drawn to Evan Longoria. If he can turn out to be a Longoria, the Tigers will be incredibly lucky.

He has been playing some games in the outfield lately for Erie, but is still considered to be a third base prospect and Dave Dombrowski says that is where he plans to play him for the foreseeable future. It wouldn't be the first time a highly touted third baseman made a transition to the outfield (see Ryan Braun), and that didn't turn out all that badly.

Detroit needs to address positional deficiencies in the system in the draft and consider stopping the nearly constant flow of prospects out of town for rental players for the major league club. If they're going to trade prospects away, they need to be signing the major league players they get in return.    

Starlin Castro to the Tigers?

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

It's probably safe to say that the Chicago Cubs will not be winning much of anything this season, and because of that, they will most likely be sellers at the trade deadline to try to build up their stockpiles of young talent. Chicago has plenty of talent available that is enticing enough that other teams will come calling; Matt Garza, Ryan Dempster and Alfonso Soriano.

One player that has long been on the Cubs "untouchable" list is Starlin Castro, their phenom short stop. But with the Cubs in need of young talent to restock the club, Castro could prove to be just too much of a cash cow for them not to use.

Castro would bring in top prospects into the Cubs organization and General Manager Theo Epstein has shown in Boston that he is not afraid to trade talent to get talent back. The 22-year-old short stop will more than likely have his name come up many times before the trade deadline passes, and if the team that mentions his name is willing to offer enough for him, then the Cubs could part ways with Castro.

A player the caliber of Castro would require at least two top-tier prospects to begin to grease the wheels, it may take even more to land him. ESPN's Buster Olney says that the number of prospects that Castro could be worth will depend on where other teams see him playing defensively in the future. Olney says that during his time at short stop he is making too many mistakes, but his bat is a plus at the position. Should the teams think to move Castro to third base, his defensive numbers improve but his bat becomes only average at the position.

But as of now the Cubs are playing Castro at short stop and that is most likely what he will continue to play; at short stop just about every team would be able to make room for him, including the Detroit Tigers. Detroit has been rumored to have been in contact with Epstein since he made the trip from Boston in regards to acquiring RHP Matt Garza.

Garza could easily slip into the second or third spot in the Tigers pitching rotation and give them a boost, but it would be irresponsible for Detroit to not inquire about the availability of Castro. While a deal for Garza was rumored to take top-prospect Jacob Turner and current right fielder Brennan Boesch; a deal for both Garza and Castro would take just about everything the Tigers have in the farm system.

With Detroit's farm system as lean as it is a deal for Garza and Castro would more than likely take Turner, Boesch, top positional prospect Nick Castellanos and catching prospect Rob Brantly. The cost may be staggering for the Tigers, but if they truly are in a win now type of situation, then this is a deal that could likely happen.

Oliver Is Odds-On Favorite For No. 5 Spot

 

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

Coming into spring training the Tigers had five different candidates to evaluate for the No. 5 spot in their starting pitching rotation; left-handed pitcher Andy Oliver, LHP Duane Below, LHP Drew Smyly, LHP Casey Crosby and RHP Jacob Turner. Most teams across the league would love to be in the Tigers situation, having nothing else to worry about on their roster other than which young talented pitcher will be the No. 5 pitcher.

At the beginning of spring it was anyone's guess as to which pitcher would be tapped to be the No. 5 or if Detroit would simply just go out and trade for a veteran. Turner's name popped up early, he faired well in his few spot starts in the majors last season but so far this spring he hasn't done as well. In his four innings pitched he has a 3.00 WHIP and an 11.25 ERA. His six walks of the spring are an indication that he doesn't have as good of control as he did last season and will most likely begin the season in Toledo.

Drew Smyly was the next "probable" No. 5 - he was a lefty, he had solid stuff and General Manager Dave Dombrowski has an affinity for promoting players to the majors from Double-A. Smyly has struggled to get innings this spring, having appeared in just two games and started only one. However, he has still gathered four inning of work and in that time posted a 1.25 WHIP, slightly higher than one would like, and a 2.25 ERA. With a 1/3 BB/K rate Smyly could still be a dark horse for the No. 5 spot, but more likely than not he will be bumped from Double-A Erie to Triple-A Toledo after the spring.

The player who has stood out the most this spring has been Andy Oliver. Oliver has had time in the majors before but has never been able to make it stick, but that may be changing this spring in Lakeland, Fla. Despite having not yet started a game this spring, Oliver has amassed seven innings of work and recorded a 0.57 WHIP and a perfect 0.00 ERA. He has shown that he has control of his pitches having walked three batters and fanned five. His GO/AO, ground outs/air outs, is 0.88 which is an indication that he has his pitches biting and is getting opponents to hit ground balls to the infielders.

Manager Jim Leyland said that the control that Oliver has demonstrated so far this spring is more impressive than what he showed in the majors in the past. Leyland said Oliver was "getting better. No question."

Tigers top five prospects for 2012

Tigers 3B prospect Nick Castellanos will soon be a stalwart in the Detroit lineup

At one time the farm system of the Detroit Tigers resembled the system that the Kansas City Royals enjoy today, but through multiple trades - both good and bad, the Tigers farm system no longer has the same luster it once did.

However, the future is not entirely bleak, there are many bright spots on the farm for the Tigers including Jacob Turner, Nick Castellanos and Drew Smyly.

A majority of the stock the Tigers enjoy in the minors are pitchers but Detroit is flush with talent across the diamond as well; the five best of those prospects are listed below.

1. RHP Jacob Turner, 20
A first round pick in 2009 Turner has been a prized commodity in the Tigers farm system for years and has even cracked the big league roster - making three spot starts in 2011. In his three starts with the Tigers Turner has a 0-1 record and an inflated 8.53 ERA. His WHIP is in good shape through his time with Detroit at 1.65. Despite his praise and potential his name has been mentioned in trade talks - should he remain with Detroit in 2012 expect him to take the No. 5 spot in the rotation.

2. 3B Nick Castellanos, 19
He is the real deal. Tigers fans may agree to another season or two with Brandon Inge struggling his way to retirement just so that they can see Castellanos play. In his first full season in the minors he has proved to be everything that the Tigers wanted in him. He exhibits power to all fields and is an exceptional fielder at third, I stop short of calling him a "five-tools player" after seeing Moneyball. After a full 142 game minor league season Castellanos' BA is .313, hitting 7 HR and 76 RBI. An OBP of .367 shows that he is capable of getting on base consistently.

3. LHP Drew Smyly, 22
Smyly was also mentioned in the possible trade for Gio Gonzalez from the Oakland Athletics. In that trade A's General Manager Billy Beane wanted Turner, Castellanos and Smyly in return for Gonzalez. In 22 minor league starts last season, across high A ball and into AA Erie Smyly posted a 11-6 record with a 2.07 ERA, a 1.103 WHIP and 9.3 SO/9. If he continues on this path Smyly will find himself with a spot on the roster very soon.

4. LHP Casey Crosby, 23
He struggled with control throughout the 2011 season posting a 4.10 ERA for a career ERA of 3.55 and a 19-12 record. Crosby has shown, when healthy, that he is capable of being dominant, having a WHIP of 1.37 and a 1.89 SO/9. In the past he has had Tommy John surgery but like many pitchers has come back stronger than he was previously - expect to hear his name quite a bit in 2012.

5. C Rob Brantly, 22
Drafted in the third round of the 2010 draft Brantly is one of several impressive catching prospects the Tigers find themselves flush with. He has shown that he is capable with the bat and has shown that he has the ability to play effectively behind the plate. In his two years in the minors Brantly has posted a .988 fielding percentage and has caught 32 percent of runners attempting to steal off him. Offensively, Brantly is hitting .269 with a .333 OBP between Lakeland and West Michigan. With Gerald Laird only being signed through the 2012 season expect for Brantly to take over the back-up duties in 2013.

Phil Coke Shows Jacob Turner How Not To Pitch in His Debut

In a late night announcement the Detroit Tigers called up super prospect Jacob Turner to take the hill against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. This pushed Saturday's probable starter Duane Below into the Tigers bullpen and brought intense excitement to Detroit about Turner's MLB debut.

Turner was impressive in his debut, dueling with Dan Haren through 5+ innings of work. He threw 5.1 innings on Saturday surrendering only three hits and giving up just two runs on the day. His second earned run came around to score when Phil Coke hit a batter to drive him in.

In all, Turner was impressive; he showed that he still has to work on pitch location, as his pitch count was what drove him from the game, but he proved that he is everything that Tigers fans have been told about him. It may also has been due to jitters about starting in the show for the first time, but Turner struggled holding runners on the day, allowing four stolen bases behind him. With six strikeouts in his favor and the Angels hitting just .158 against him, Turner appears to be well on his way to the big club on a regular basis.

The Tigers played good defense behind Turner on Saturday, running down several long fly balls that he allowed and throwing out runners attempting to stretch singles to doubles. With any run support Turner may have won his debut, but he drew the short straw and had to attempt to out duel Haren. When he left the game in the 6th inning, Detroit was still tied with the Angels. The problem came when Manager Jim Leyland pulled Turner to bring in Phil Coke.

Coke entered the game and promptly allowed a double to Erik Aybar, pushing Howie Kendrick, Turner's runner, to third base before intentionally walking Mark Trumbo to load the bases. The walk of Trumbo was made to set up a possible double play to get the Tigers out of the inning; however, Coke hit Peter Bourjos driving in Kendrick to give Turner two earned runs on the day.

Jeff Mathis was then able to get a sacrifice fly off Coke to drive in another run, pushing the score to 3-1 in the Angels favor. With first base open and two outs Coke hit the very next batter to load the bases again for Torii Hunter, who flied out to right.

The Tigers were able to get runners on base against Haren but poor base running cost them at least one run in the later innings. In the 7th inning, Detroit was able to get runners on first and third with no outs before Victor Martinez grounded into a double play that could have been avoided. Magglio Ordonez was not coming home on contact and once Trumbo threw to second base to get Miguel Cabrera out Ordonez was tagged out at home plate. 

In the next inning Coke continued his struggles by surrendering two more runs before Leyland finally relieved him for Daniel Schlereth. Schlereth was able to keep the Angels from scoring any more, but the damage had already been done. The Angels lead 5-1 and that's all Haren needed.

Haren finished out the game on 113 pitches to get the win and spoil Turner's MLB debut. Coke has struggled in recent games and today was no different; he may be the one to benefit the most from the Tigers trade for Doug Fister and David Pauley. Pauley may be a right-handed reliever but his addition to the bull pen should allow Leyland more options in the later innings. Coke will benefit by not being counted on as often to come into situations with the game on the line, some time off may be just what he needs.

In all, Turner's debut was successful and Tigers fans should be very encouraged by his performance. With the addition of Fister to Detroit's rotation the Tigers pitching future is quite bright. Look for a rotation of Justin Verlander, Max Scherzer, Rick Porcello, Fister and Turner in 2012 and beyond.