Could Rick Porcello be the Tigers closer?

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

From Day One, the Tigers have said that Bruce Rondon was their first choice to be the closer this season. The rest of the baseball world wondered, why would they pick a rookie who is walk-happy? Well, Detroit appears to be having second thoughts.

In 3.2 innings of work Rondon has failed to get a 1-2-3 inning, allowed five hits, three runs, walked five and posted a 2.72 WHIP. None of which are what you like to see out of a closer, so it appears General Manager Dave Dombrowski will have to start looking elsewhere for his hammer out of the bullpen.

Detroit is supposedly looking outside the organization for a closer to trade for, likely trying to use Rick Porcello as trade bait to see what they can get for him. But finding a closer is hard, and trading for a proven one is even harder.

The logical place to look for a closer is Washington, where the signing of Rafael Soriano has left Drew Storen and Tyler Clippard on the outside looking in. Although the Nationals has a glut of closer-types, signs out of D.C. are that they aren't looking to part with them readily, if at all.

Perhaps the Red Sox' Andrew Bailey would appeal to the Tigers, but from all accounts the two clubs have yet to speak at any length in regard to the closer. That could change however, with Detroit looking to nab themselves a late-inning man quickly.

With the closer market being as thin as it is, Detroit could look within to fill the role. The obvious choices would be either Phil Coke, Octavio Dotel or Joaquin Benoit, but they each serve a valuable role in the bullpen and struggle with batters on the other side of the plate. Could the solution be the man Detroit has been trying to trade away?

What if Porcello was the closer? That would allow Drew Smyly the fifth spot in the rotation. And what features does one look for in a closer? They must be able to throw strikes and get ground balls that can easily be turned into outs. Porcello does both of those things.

As a ground ball, contact-pitcher Porcello is often at the mercy of his defense over the length of a typical start. But as a closer, Porcello could get a few grounders and get off the mound quickly. In a typical Porcello start, he starts strong and starts to struggle as the game goes on. So using that, the shorter his outings the better his performance.

Porcello still gets his ground balls and makes contact with the bat, which is how you know he's on his game, but as long as the defense behind him can turn three grounders into outs he could be a great closer.

Detroit Tigers Must Hold Onto Porcello

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier

It's been well documented that the Tigers are willing spend money in order to win now for their aging owner, Mike Ilitch, but when a team tries to play like the New York Yankees in the clubhouse, they lose to the Yankees on the field.


The Tigers payroll will top $156M in 2012, an unheard of figure for a mid-market team with a modest television deal. General Manager Dave Dombrowski has done his best to fill the needs of the team through trades and via free agency. While that has brought talent to the team, it has strained the pocketbook and emptied the farm system.

When the Tigers traded uber-prospect Jacob Turner and major-league-ready catcher Rob Brantly to the Miami Marlins in July for pitcher Anibal Sanchez and second-baseman Omar Infante, many said the only way the trade would be deemed palatable is if the Tigers won the World Series or resigned Sanchez.

Well, the Tigers made it to the World Series, but lost. Then Dombrowksi inked Sanchez to a five-year deal deal worth $80M, and the trade talk around the Tigers heated up. Yes, Detroit is a much better team with Sanchez on it than without him, but one cannot so easily give up on prospects.

The ink wasn't even dry on the deal Sanchez contract and there were rumors swirling as to where Detroit would be trading pitcher Rick Porcello. It was taken as a given, a throw away move on a prospect that was one of the top rated high school pitchers taken in his draft.

Porcello, who turns 24 on Dec. 27, does not have the best career numbers, but a closer look at his stats reveals that he is improving each season and could very well be better than many give him credit for.

from Baseball-Reference.com

Each year, after 2009, Porcello has shown improvement to his ERA numbers, cutting 0.33 off his career high of 4.92 in 2010. His WHIP has not been as steady, and has bounced around from season to season. In 2012, Porcello posted a WHIP of 1.53, nosing his career WHIP to 1.417.

Normally any pitcher with a WHIP north of 1.35 is not a starter, but there are other factors one must consider before relegating Porcello to the scrap heap. Porcello is a ground-ball pitcher, meaning that he is at his best when batters make contact with the ball. The style of pitching is why the WHIP of any ground-ball, contact-pitcher is notably higher than that of a power-pitcher.

Porcello has increased his ground-ball numbers and cut down on his home runs allowed each season, resulting in a career best 16 home runs allowed in 2012. The problem with Porcello is that when he is on his game, he is getting quite a few ground balls and those ground balls have to be fielded by arguably one of the worst infields in the league.

Miguel Cabrera, at third base, does an admirable job, but his range is minimal. To Cabrera's left is shortstop Jhonny Peralta, who despite an impressive postseason, only has decent range forward and not to his left or right. Omar Infante had nine errors at second base for the Tigers in only 61 games. And Prince Fielder, at first, has one of the worst ranges in the game. Meaning that if Porcello had a defense behind him, he would easily be a 20-game winner.

Now, poor infield-defense may be another reason to trade Porcello. Or, one could look at making a few roster moves in the 2013 offseason that would shore up the defense and make Porcello look a heck of a lot better each time he is on the mound.

Right now, Porcello does not have the highest trade value. Teams know that the Tigers consider him to be "surplus," so they are not willing to give up much in return. Meaning that a former first-round draft pick would have gotten Detroit Joel Hanrahan. There are reports that several teams are interested in trading for Porcello, but how many of them would give Detroit anything of use?

With the trade route being rather barren, and fairly short-sighted, the best option is for the Tigers to hold onto Porcello and roll with the punches. Porcello has shown steady improvement, and remember, this guy is 24-years old. Verlander went 11-17 with a 4.84 ERA in 2008 when he was 25, so there is something to be said for letting players develop.

The argument for trading Porcello has been that with the signing of Sanchez, there is only one open spot for a starter on the team. But think to yourself, when is the last time that any team went the entire season without an injury to one of their starters? Exactly.

Detroit has six starters. That's it. Seriously, there are no others. The Tigers traded Andy Oliver and shipped Adam Wilk to Korea this offseason. Casey Crosby has shown he isn't ready to start, and Duane Below has proven that he is best out of the bullpen. So should there be an injury to one of Detroit's starters, there is no help.

What Detroit needs to do, is to just take a deep breath and hold onto their young talent. Let Porcello and Drew Smyly duke it out in spring training for the final starters slot, and reward the other with a long-relief position in the bullpen. Both Smyly and Porcello have what it takes to be a starter.

The Tigers are good with one of the two of them on the roster, and they are even better with both of them. Having both Porcello and Smyly on the active-roster allows Manager Jim Leyland some flexibility with his rotation and also provides him with a safety net should something happen to one of his pitchers.

So the Tigers should let the stove remain hot and listen to offers, but unless something comes that blows them away they would be best suited to hold onto their talent. 

What do the Detroit Tigers do to improve their pitching for 2013?

By Sean Gagnier

Even as the Detroit Tigers watched the San Francisco Giants celebrate their World Championship at Comerica Park, questions arose as to what happens for 2013. One of those questions could be, how to the Tigers improve their pitching?

There are several options but two stand out more than any other.

General Manager Dave Dombrowski could make a move to resign Anibal Sanchez and keep him in Detroit for the long term. While that could be the preferred option, it could prove to be an expensive one. Sanchez, despite not receiving much run support in Detroit, posted a 2.15 ERA and 44 K's in his last eight outings and has said that he is open to returning to Motown.

That being said, Detroit will not be the only team pursuing Sanchez this off-season. Teams such as the New York Yankees, Boston Red Sox and Kansas City Royals will be in the hunt for Sanchez's services, which could drive his salary up quite steep.

Sanchez is 28 years old and only has a career record of 48-51, but ESPN's Buster Olney reports that he could get a contract worth anywhere from $30 to $60 million. If those figures are accurate, the Tigers could very well let Sanchez walk, seeing as he is slated to be the fourth starter behind Justin Verlander, Doug Fister and Max Scherzer.

The other option open to the Tigers would be the trade route, and despite popular thoughts by fans, Rick Porcello remains a viable trade asset for Detroit. Porcello is a solid ground ball pitcher and could bring a decent return, either in the form of a starter or bullpen help.

As a ground ball pitcher Porcello is well suited for a National League club, instead of the one he currently plays for that has very poor infield defense. A ground ball pitcher is only as good as his infield defense, and well...look who is in the infield for Detroit.

Porcello still is well regarded among other general managers and appears to be a fit in Minnesota, San Diego or Pittsburgh. A trade of Porcello for Joel Hanrahan or Aaron Crow could very well be a realistic possibility.

Detroit Tigers Will Have Work Cut Out for Them in Arbitration

By Sean Gagnier
It may be early, the Tigers aren't dead yet in the World Series, but looking at a 3-0 series deficit, it couldn't hurt to look to the 2013 season.

First off, the Tigers already high payroll could get much higher next season, with nine players eligible for salary arbitration.

Arbitration Eligible Tigers
Includes player's 2012 salary

• Max Scherzer, $3.75 million
• Rick Porcello, $3.1 million
• Ryan Raburn, $2.1 million
• Phil Coke, $1.1 million
• Don Kelly, $900,000
• Alex Avila, $510,000
• Doug Fister, $507,500
• Brennan Boesch, $502,500
• Austin Jackson, $500,000

Most of the eligible players are well deserving of a pay raise, but there are several that the Tigers should be kicking to the curb quickly following the World Series.

Of the nine players eligible for arbitration, Raburn does not deserve a pay raise at all, in fact he probably should have to pay Mike Illich for being as bad as he is. No chance he is back with the team next season.

With Detroit likely picking up the $6 million option on Jhonny Peralta, they will have no need for Kelly and will likely cut him.

Boesch more than likely has seen his last game in a Tigers uniform. He did not follow up his good 2011 season with a equally impressive 2012 season, and has been left off all three Tigers postseason rosters. If that isn't a sign that Detroit is ready to part ways with Boesch, then nothing is. Not to mention the glut of outfielders the Tigers have right now.

Scherzer will see yet another big pay raise; last season Scherzer saw his salary grow from $600,000 to $3.75 million. If things hold like they did last season, Scherzer could be bringing in quite a bit more money next year.

Like Scherzer, the other Tigers eligible for arbitration, aside from Raburn, Boesch and Kelly, will all likely see a bump in pay and return to the club next season without any incidences.

With Raburn, Boesch and Kelly being shown the door, Detroit will add to it's payroll without adding a single player. That doesn't bode well for being active with free agents.
 
Savings: $3.5 million


 Free Agent Tigers

• Jose Valverde, $9 million
• Delmon Young, $6.75 million
• Gerald Laird, $1 million
• Anibal Sanchez, $8 million

First off, Valverde will never play for the Tigers again. Even before his garbage postseason, he signed with agent Scott Boras, one of the two agents who drive up player contracts to ridiculous sums. Then Valverde tried to blow the Tigers postseason twice in the American division and league championship series. and for some reason Leyland decided to waste a bullpen spot with his arm in the World Series.

Valverde will be on the first plane out of Detroit in the off-season and will never come back. 

Delmon Young may have been named the ALCS MVP, but that doesn't make up for a horrible regular season and his bat, when hot, in no way comes close to making up for his defense in left field, if you can even call it that. Young's -29 RAA is one of the lowest in the entire league, meaning that when he plays left field, Young gives up 29 more runs than an average player. And even his bat doesn't save him, Young boasted a -9Rbat, runs batted in by position. So not only can he not field, he can't hit. Wave g'bye to Young this off-season.

Laird has struggled in the postseason offensively, and didn't have the best year at the plate during the regular season, but he has served as a solid backup for Alex Avila all year. With Victor Martinez returning next season, the Tigers would have three catchers on the roster, but it also depends on how they plan to use Martinez.

The only problem with using Martinez, Laird and Avila, is that Martinez is owed $13 million next season. While that is quite a hefty sum, if he can produce with RISP like he did in 2011 then he will be worth every penny.

That being said, we would prefer to see Martinez used as the DH on a daily basis next season and see Laird return at $1 million or a little more. Martinez is too valuable to this team to put him behind the plate and risk him getting hurt or wearing out what little is left of his knees. By resigning Laird, all three catchers could work with the pitching staff and if absolutely necessary Martinez could serve as the emergency catcher. Laird works well with Scherzer and Porcello, while Avila tends to work better with Verlander and Fister. Why break up the band now?

While Sanchez has yet to see any bump in run support moving from Miami to Detroit, he appears to like the club and the fans, but it has yet to be seen if that will turn into him resigning with the Tigers. With Detroit cutting ties to Valverde, Boesch and Young, there should be enough money to offer Sanchez a competitive deal to keep him in Motown.

He may not have had the best first few outings for Detroit, but Sanchez has shown that he is as capable a pitcher as any of the other guys on the staff. Sanchez will receive contracts worth absurd money, no doubt, but the Tigers will likely offer him something in the neighborhood of $9-10 million per season.

Savings: $15.75 million 

Total Savings: $19.25 million

What about the 'pen?

Phil Coke has shown that he is capable of handling the closers role in the postseason, why not keep him in that role? With Coke serving as the closer, the 7th and 8th inning roles could be left up to Octavio Dotel and Joaquin Benoit.

Moving Coke to the closer, leaves the Tigers in need of a situational lefty, which could be filled by Darin Downs. Continuing to use Al Albuquerque in tight situations would be a solid move and so would be moving Bruce Rondon up from the Toledo Mud Hens and into the Tigers bullpen.

Detroit made a good run in 2011, but was hampered by injuries. In 2012, an American League Championship is nothing to sneeze at, but the Tigers have no one to blame but themselves for under-performing in the World Series. If Detroit wants to stay at the top of the AL for a long time, they need to reward success while promoting young cheap talent from within.

There's No One Thing Going Wrong with Tigers, It's Multifaceted

By Sean Gagnier
@SeanGagnier 

With their loss on Saturday night in Oakland the Detroit Tigers fell below .500 for the first time since May 29, 2011. But it's early, right? Detroit was right around .500 at this time last season and ended up going to the American League Championship Series; so what's there to worry about, right?

Wrong. Everything clicked last season. Remember the Tigers chasing the 2002 Oakland A's consecutive win's streak last season? That helped a little bit. But so many players had career years in 2011 that it skewed peoples expectations for this season.

If there was just one thing going wrong with the Tigers they would find it and fix it, but there isn't just one thing wrong with this team. It permeates every facet of this team and makes it impossible to fix this club with one fell swoop.

Rick Porcello's last start aside the Tigers rotation is probably the only good thing going for Detroit right now. In Detroit's last 13 games the starters have combined for a 2.62 ERA. While Doug Fister struggled a bit on Saturday, he has been good since coming back from the disabled list. Porcello couldn't keep his pitches down in the zone and when you're a ground ball pitcher that is death. But the starters aren't the problem.

Over the same 13 game span in which the starters have compiled a 2.62 ERA the Tigers bullpen has consistently imploded and has a 8.90 ERA over 13 games. Among the pitchers currently in the pen, the bullpen has averaged a 1.36 WHIP this season. These are supposed to be the most clutch pitchers on staff, they are supposed to be able to come into a game and slam the door, not give up runs. And when your relief pitchers are giving up an average of about one and a half base runners per inning there is a major problem.

On to hitting. Or lack of hitting for that matter. Over the Tigers last seven losses the offense has scored; 2,2,2,2,1,4 and 1 runs in each loss respectively. The lack of runs stems from the team's inability to get on base; this season the regular nine starters have averaged just a .321 on-base percentage.

A more telling statistic is the on-base percentage plus slugging, or OPS. The same nine starters that factored in to the on-base percentage stat were averaged for their OPS. First, an explanation of what a good OPS is. An OPS between .700 and .800 is mediocre, anything over .800 is a solid starter and anything over 1.000 is elite status.

That being said, when an average is taken of the OPS' of; Alex Avila, Prince Fielder, Ryan Raburn, Jhonny Peralta, Miguel Cabrera, Andy Dirks, Austin Jackson, Brennan Boesch and Delmon Young they average out to .740. With a team OPS smack dab in the middle of mediocre-ville nothing will ever get done offensively with this club.

Those same nine players have combined this season for a sub-par .264 batting average, while failing to drive in very many runs. Over the Tigers first 32 games they have allowed 144 runs while only scoring 138; with those numbers being crunched they spit out a figure that puts their win/loss at 15-17, while their record actually being at 16-16.

Consistency is something this team lacks; second base is the major offender there. With all three candidates; Ryan Raburn, Ramon Santiago and Danny Worth fairing quite poorly it is obvious that something needs to be done, but what? First of all, Raburn should never be near the lineup, starting or otherwise, ever again. Trade him for a bucket of baseballs, at least they would be useful.

Santiago has been solid defensively, but poor offensively. With a .163 BA, .208 OBP and .432 OPS he is far from the answer Detroit needs at second base. Santiago could be used later in games as a defensive replacement but should not see his name on the starting lineup card for some time. Worth is a bit of an unknown still as he has not been given enough at-bat's. He has 14 at-bat's this season, no where near the 100 that he needs to get for the Tigers to be able to judge what they have in him.

Worth has a .214/.353/.567 split, not too bad in the OBP column but in each of the other categories he needs improvement. It is too soon to tell if that is because he is not starting material, but he needs to get more at-bat's more consistently in order for the Tigers to find out if he is the answer to their problems or if they need to go out and trade for Chris Getz or Neil Walker.

So while the Tigers are struggling and the talk radio show phone lines will fill up with people who have "pin pointed" to all of Detroit's problems, but they are wrong. There is not just one problem for this team, there are many problems and not near enough solutions.